BX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
BX Report Distributable earnings per share BEAT pred ~$1.35 vs. cons $1.33 MEDIUM
BX Report Fee-related earnings IN-LINE pred ~$1.50B vs. cons $1.49B MEDIUM
BX Report Total inflows BEAT pred ~$58B vs. cons $54B MEDIUM
BX Guide Base-management-fee growth LOWER guide ~10% YoY vs. cons 11% YoY (Q4 2026) MEDIUM
BX Guide Realization-related revenue LOWER guide ~$1.7B vs. cons $2.0B (H2 2026) MEDIUM
BX Guide BCRED net flows LOWER guide ~-$2.2B vs. cons -$1.5B (Q3 2026) LOW
BX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.3% MEDIUM
BX Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.8% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A modest reported beat is outweighed by weaker out-period assumptions: H2 2026 realization-related revenue of ~$1.7B vs. consensus $2.0B and Q4 2026 base-management-fee growth of ~10% vs. consensus 11%, driving estimate cuts after the print. MEDIUM