{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Distributable earnings per share",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.35 vs. cons $1.33",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Fee-related earnings",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.50B vs. cons $1.49B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total inflows",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$58B vs. cons $54B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Base-management-fee growth",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~10% YoY vs. cons 11% YoY (Q4 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Realization-related revenue",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.7B vs. cons $2.0B (H2 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "BCRED net flows",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~-$2.2B vs. cons -$1.5B (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.3,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.8,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest reported beat is outweighed by weaker out-period assumptions: H2 2026 realization-related revenue of ~$1.7B vs. consensus $2.0B and Q4 2026 base-management-fee growth of ~10% vs. consensus 11%, driving estimate cuts after the print.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}