BX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
BX Report Distributable earnings per common share IN-LINE pred ~$1.35 vs. cons $1.33 MEDIUM
BX Report Fee-related earnings per share IN-LINE pred ~$1.30 vs. cons $1.30 MEDIUM
BX Report Total inflows BEAT pred ~$58B vs. cons $54B MEDIUM
BX Guide Base-management-fee growth cadence LOWER guide ~5% vs. cons 7% (2H26) MEDIUM
BX Guide BCRED net-flow trajectory LOWER guide ~-$1.0B vs. cons -$0.5B (3Q26) LOW
BX Guide Net realizations outlook UNCHANGED guide ~$1.6B vs. cons $1.6B (2H26) LOW
BX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.0% MEDIUM
BX Return 5-day cumulative residual -5.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) An in-line DE result and inflow beat are likely outweighed by lower implied second-half base-fee growth and persistent BCRED outflows; those out-period assumptions should pull 2026-27 DE estimates lower after the report. MEDIUM