BX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
BX Report Total Net Realizations (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$560M vs. cons $417M HIGH
BX Report Fee-Related Earnings (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$1,610M vs. cons $1,585M MEDIUM
BX Report Inflows - AUM (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$62B vs. cons $54.4B MEDIUM
BX Guide Realization Trajectory (H2 2026) BETTER guide 'robust H2' vs. cons FY $2,309M net realizations HIGH
BX Guide FRE Trajectory (Q3/Q4 2026) BETTER guide 'acceleration in H2' vs. cons FY FRE $6,385M MEDIUM
BX Guide Wealth Channel / BCRED (Q3 2026) BETTER guide stabilization/recovery vs. cons $54.4B Q3 inflows MEDIUM
BX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +5.5% MEDIUM
BX Return 5-day cumulative residual +7.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — realization beat forces FY estimate revisions upward; short covering (23M shares) sustains bid; archetype A has followed through in both historical instances (+6.9% and +5.2%) MEDIUM