{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total Net Realizations (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$560M vs. cons $417M",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Fee-Related Earnings (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1,610M vs. cons $1,585M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Inflows - AUM (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$62B vs. cons $54.4B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Realization Trajectory (H2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide 'robust H2' vs. cons FY $2,309M net realizations",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FRE Trajectory (Q3/Q4 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide 'acceleration in H2' vs. cons FY FRE $6,385M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Wealth Channel / BCRED (Q3 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide stabilization/recovery vs. cons $54.4B Q3 inflows",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 5.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 7.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "FOLLOW-THROUGH \u2014 realization beat forces FY estimate revisions upward; short covering (23M shares) sustains bid; archetype A has followed through in both historical instances (+6.9% and +5.2%)",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}