Earnings Date: July 23, 2026 (Before Market Open) Prepared: July 22, 2026
Ticker: BX Reporting Period: Q2 2026 (Quarter ending June 30, 2026)
Key Takeaway: The setup into BX’s Q2 print is modestly constructive — the June 23 8-K pre-announced >$500M in realized performance revenues through June 23 (vs. consensus of ~$417M for the full quarter), setting up a meaningful realization beat. The key swing factor is whether FRE momentum and inflows can confirm the recovery narrative management has been building since the Q1 miss.
Heading into Q2 2026, Blackstone’s setup is more constructive than the stock’s flat-to-down performance since Q1 earnings would suggest. The June 23 8-K pre-announced realized performance revenues and principal investment income in excess of $500M for April 1 through June 23 alone — well above the full-quarter consensus of ~$417M — signaling a meaningful realization beat is likely. FRE consensus of ~$1.58B implies ~2.3% sequential growth, a modest bar given management’s commentary at the Morgan Stanley Financials Conference (June 9) that wealth channel flows had recovered sharply to Q1 levels by June 1, with private equity inflows reaching their best level since product launch. The stock has underperformed SPY by ~7% since Q1 earnings, trading at a self-described “meaningful discount to market multiples on consensus earnings” per management — a setup that could compress quickly if the realization beat is accompanied by strong inflow and FRE numbers. The key wildcard is whether BCRED net outflows have stabilized or reversed, and whether management provides a more definitive H2 realization outlook now that the Middle East conflict appears to be moving toward resolution.
Component | Assessment |
Bar | Consensus DE EPS of $1.36 is a modest bar — essentially flat vs. Q1’s $1.36 actual. The realization pre-announcement suggests the realized performance revenue line will beat meaningfully. |
Guidance / Tone | Management tone has shifted from cautiously optimistic (Q1 call) to more confident (Morgan Stanley conference, June 9) — wealth channel recovery confirmed, IPO pipeline active with 7 more IPOs on file globally, and AI infrastructure deal flow accelerating. |
Estimate Trajectory | FRE estimates have risen ~2.2% since Q1 earnings (from $1.549B to $1.585B). DE EPS estimates are essentially flat (-0.7%), suggesting the market is not yet pricing in a meaningful realization beat. |
Stock Setup | BX is down ~0.4% since Q1 earnings vs. SPY +5.5% and KIE +7.7% — significant underperformance. The stock appears to have priced in continued private credit noise and realization uncertainty, not the recovery narrative management has been articulating. |
Wildcard | The BCRED redemption trajectory and whether management can confirm that private credit wealth channel flows have fully normalized. A definitive statement here, combined with the realization beat, could be the catalyst for multiple re-rating. |
Key Takeaway: Consensus is a low-to-moderate bar on DE EPS and FRE, but the realization pre-announcement sets a high bar on that specific line. Inflows (~$54B consensus) are the most watched metric given the wealth channel recovery narrative.
KPI | Q1 2026 Actual | Q2 2025 Actual | Q2 2026 Consensus | YoY Change | Guidance | Consensus vs. Guidance |
DE per Share (Diluted) | $1.36 | $1.21 | $1.36 | +12.4% | No specific guidance | N/A |
Fee-Related Earnings | $1,548M | $1,460M | $1,585M | +8.6% | “Strong positive trajectory in 2026” | N/A — qualitative only |
FRE Margin | 59.1% | 58.6% | 58.6% | +0.0pp | Stable to expanding | ~flat |
Total Net Realizations | $448M | $326M | $417M | +27.9% | >$500M through June 23 (8-K) | Consensus likely below 8-K implied |
Inflows (AUM) | $68.5B | $52.1B | $54.4B | +4.5% | No specific guidance | N/A |
End of Period AUM | $1,304B | $1,211B | $1,334B | +10.2% | No specific guidance | N/A |
Total Segment DE | $1,996M | $1,785M | $1,998M | +11.9% | No specific guidance | N/A |
Source: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data. All consensus figures as of July 22, 2026.
Quarter | Reported | Consensus | Surprise % | Result |
Q2 2024 | $0.96 | $0.98 | -2.0% | Miss |
Q3 2024 | $1.01 | $0.92 | +9.8% | Beat |
Q4 2024 | $1.69 | $1.48 | +14.2% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | $1.09 | $1.06 | +2.8% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | $1.21 | $1.11 | +9.0% | Beat |
Q3 2025 | $1.52 | $1.22 | +24.6% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | $1.75 | $1.53 | +14.4% | Beat |
Q1 2026 | $1.36 | $1.35 | +0.7% | Slight Beat |
Quarter | Reported ($M) | Consensus ($M) | Surprise % | Result |
Q2 2024 | $1,111 | $1,116 | -0.4% | Slight Miss |
Q3 2024 | $1,175 | $1,152 | +2.0% | Beat |
Q4 2024 | $1,836 | $1,653 | +11.1% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | $1,262 | $1,249 | +1.0% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | $1,460 | $1,359 | +7.4% | Beat |
Q3 2025 | $1,481 | $1,443 | +2.6% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | $1,535 | $1,477 | +3.9% | Beat |
Q1 2026 | $1,548 | $1,532 | +1.0% | Beat |
Pattern: BX has beaten DE EPS consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters, with an average beat of ~9% (excluding the Q2 2024 miss). FRE beats have been more consistent but smaller in magnitude. The Q1 2026 beat was the smallest in the streak, suggesting the bar has been reset higher. Source: Visible Alpha.
Key Takeaway: No formal numerical guidance revision since Q1 earnings, but management tone has shifted meaningfully more positive at the Morgan Stanley Financials Conference (June 9) — wealth channel recovery confirmed, realization pipeline described as strong, and the June 23 8-K provides a hard data point on Q2 realization activity well above consensus.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call, Apr 23) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
Base Management Fees / FRE | “Moderate growth Q2/Q3, accelerating in H2” | No change | $1,585M FRE | Consistent with sequential step-up narrative; real estate headwinds expected to bottom mid-year |
Total Net Realizations | “Robust H2 if Middle East conflict resolves” | >$500M through June 23 (8-K, Jun 23, 2026) | $417M full Q2 | ↑ Upward revision via 8-K; consensus likely stale and well below 8-K implied figure |
Wealth Channel Flows | “Slowdown in April/May; monitoring” | “Recovered to Q1 levels by June 1” (MS Conf., Jun 9) | $54.4B inflows | ↑ Positive update at MS Financials Conference; PE flows best since product launch |
Real Estate FRE | “Headwinds bottom out mid-year, accelerate into year-end” | No change | $574M | Consistent with guidance; Q2 may be near the trough before H2 acceleration |
Stock-Based Comp Growth | “Materially lower than Q1 rate for full year” | No change | N/A | Positive for DE margin; Q1 SBC growth was elevated |
Key Takeaway: FRE estimates have risen ~2.2% since Q1 earnings, tracking management’s “strong positive trajectory” commentary. DE EPS estimates are essentially flat, suggesting the market is not yet pricing in the realization beat implied by the June 23 8-K. The gap between the 8-K-implied realization figure and consensus is the most significant divergence heading into the print.
KPI | Period | Estimate (Apr 28, 2026 — 5 days post Q1 earnings) | Current Consensus | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance |
DE EPS | Q2 2026 | $1.37 | $1.36 | -0.7% | No specific guidance | No change | N/A | N/A |
DE EPS | FY 2026 | $6.00 | $5.92 | -1.3% | No specific guidance | No change | N/A | N/A |
Fee-Related Earnings | Q2 2026 | $1,549M | $1,585M | +2.3% | “Strong positive trajectory” | No change | N/A | Tracking guidance |
Fee-Related Earnings | FY 2026 | $6,333M | $6,385M | +0.8% | “Strong positive trajectory” | No change | N/A | Tracking guidance |
Total Net Realizations | Q2 2026 | $473M | $417M | -11.8% | “Robust H2 if conflict resolves” | >$500M through June 23 (8-K) | Significant upward | Consensus well below 8-K implied |
Inflows (AUM) | Q2 2026 | $55.7B | $54.4B | -2.3% | No specific guidance | “Recovered to Q1 levels by June 1” | Positive | Consensus may be conservative |
The most significant divergence is in Total Net Realizations — the June 23 8-K pre-announced >$500M through June 23 alone, while consensus sits at $417M for the full quarter. This gap represents the clearest potential upside surprise heading into the print. Source: Visible Alpha.
Key Takeaway: BX has significantly underperformed both the S&P 500 (+5.5%) and the KIE financials ETF (+7.7%) since Q1 earnings, declining ~0.4% on an absolute basis. The underperformance is driven by private credit sentiment headwinds and realization uncertainty — not fundamental deterioration — suggesting the stock is set up for a catch-up trade if Q2 results confirm the recovery narrative.
BX vs. KIE (Insurance ETF) vs. S&P 500 (SPY) — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings Date (Apr 23, 2026). Source: Stock Price Data.
Key Takeaway: The June 23 8-K realization pre-announcement (>$500M through June 23) is the most material development since Q1 earnings and sets up a clear realization beat. The Nippon Life partnership, Broadcom/Apollo AI XPV Platform co-investment, and Williams power deal demonstrate continued deal velocity and validate the AI infrastructure thesis.
Key Takeaway: Peers reporting Q1 2026 earnings in May provided extensive forward-looking commentary about Q2 and H2 2026 that is directly relevant to BX’s setup. The read-through is broadly positive: fundraising momentum is strong across the industry, real estate recovery is accelerating, and private credit institutional demand is robust despite wealth channel noise. KKR’s explicit Q2 wealth channel slowdown warning is the most notable negative read-through.
Note: All commentary below is from Q1 2026 earnings calls (reported May 2026) and represents forward-looking views about Q2 2026 and H2 2026 — not backward-looking Q1 results.
Peer | Key Commentary (Q1 2026 Earnings, May 2026) | BX Read-Through |
KKR | “We continue to feel very confident in our ability to exceed our targets for fundraising.” Fundraising momentum “really good” with “a lot of momentum on a number of fronts” — global, including Middle East, pension/sovereign wealth, insurance, and high net worth. Expects to “take share” as clients consolidate to fewer managers. | Institutional fundraising environment remains robust; BX’s scale advantage should be a tailwind. |
Apollo | Reaffirmed 20% FRE growth and 10% SRE growth for 2026. CEO Marc Rowan: “Based on the pipeline we see, I expect origination in Q2 to be even stronger” — potentially nearing the record $97B quarter. “The momentum is real, it’s diversified and it’s accelerating.” | Strong origination environment in Q2 supports BX’s deployment and fee-paying AUM growth narrative. |
Ares | “On track for another record year of fundraising.” Three of their largest institutional private credit funds in market over next 12 months. Alternative credit fund fundraise expected to complete in Q2 at its hard cap, “meaningfully oversubscribed.” | Institutional private credit demand remains strong; validates BX’s credit fundraising outlook. |
Brookfield AM | “2026 will be a significant record year for fundraising.” Flagship PE fund expected to be “the largest vintage of its kind.” Infrastructure flagship first close expected in 2026. “No spread compression around fee rates.” | Broad-based institutional demand for alternatives; fee rate environment stable. |
Carlyle | Entering a “super cycle” in fundraising for AlpInvest, private equity, and opportunistic credit. Clear path to $200B of inflows by end of 2028. | Long-term fundraising cycle remains intact; positive for BX’s multi-year AUM growth narrative. |
TPG | Expects capital raising to exceed $50B in 2026. “Clear path to accelerating inflows.” 2026 expected to mark the beginning of a “multiyear major fundraising cycle” for real estate. | Real estate fundraising cycle beginning — positive for BX’s BREP and real estate platform. |
Peer | Key Commentary (Q1 2026 Earnings, May 2026) | BX Read-Through |
KKR | Explicitly expects “a slowdown in Q2” in wealth channel flows, “consistent with what we saw after the tariff announcements last year.” “Media attention will likely slow things down for a bit.” | Most direct negative read-through for BX’s wealth channel — KKR’s Q2 slowdown warning aligns with BX’s April/May slowdown, but BX management subsequently confirmed recovery by June 1. |
Carlyle | CTAC redemptions may persist “for a little while.” Conversations with advisors remain robust. | Wealth channel private credit noise persisting into Q2 for peers; BX’s June 1 recovery commentary is a positive differentiator. |
Apollo | “Long-term wealth opportunity over a long cycle remains unchanged.” Expects “dispersion across managers” — opportunity for share gains. Plans to launch 100% daily pricing for credit business “later this year” to change perceived riskiness of private credit. | Apollo’s daily pricing initiative could be a positive catalyst for the broader private credit wealth channel; BX could benefit from improved sentiment. |
Brookfield AM | Private wealth business growing at “about 40% for the last couple of years.” In advanced discussions with largest target date fund providers for 401(k) default portfolios. | Wealth channel secular growth story intact; 401(k) opportunity is a shared tailwind for BX. |
TPG | Formally launched T-POP with new international distribution partner. Actively working on new products including a nontraded REIT and multi-strategy credit interval fund. | Wealth channel product innovation accelerating across the industry; validates BX’s product launch strategy. |
Peer | Key Commentary (Q1 2026 Earnings, May 2026) | BX Read-Through |
KKR | Forward monetization pipeline of “over $1.2 billion of gross monetization revenue” from exits since March 31 and signed transactions — described as “the largest forward monetization figure we’ve discussed on a call in our history.” However, noted “modestly less visibility” than budget due to market uncertainty. | Strong realization pipeline across the industry; KKR’s record forward monetization figure is a positive read-through for BX’s realization outlook. |
Apollo | Expects Q2 origination to be “even stronger” than Q1’s $71B, potentially nearing the record $97B. “A robust origination pipeline, broadening across all parts of our business.” | Strong deployment environment in Q2; positive for BX’s capital deployment and fee-paying AUM growth. |
Brookfield AM | “Based on our deep pipeline, we expect activity to further build as the year progresses.” Expects to benefit from “both increased deployment opportunities and improving backdrop for monetization.” | Improving M&A and realization backdrop; positive for BX’s H2 realization outlook. |
Carlyle | Several transactions expected to drive realized carry in remainder of 2026 — “very near term” and “well along the way.” | Carry realization cycle accelerating across the industry; positive for BX’s net accrued performance revenue conversion. |
TPG | Expects GP-led secondaries industry deal volumes to “exceed 2025, which was a record year for single asset CVs.” | Secondaries market (where BX crossed $100B AUM) is in a record year; positive for BX’s secondaries platform. |
Peer | Key Commentary (Q1 2026 Earnings, May 2026) | BX Read-Through |
Brookfield AM | “The real estate recovery and its very rapid acceleration is far ahead of what you’re reading in the headlines.” Seeing “very significant increases in transaction activity, deal volumes and recovery in valuations.” Looking to do “about $20 billion of real estate transactions in a 2-month period.” Rents in Tier 1 markets “legitimately 50%, 70%, 80% higher than they were 5 years ago.” | Strongest positive read-through for BX’s real estate segment — validates BX management’s “approaching the steeper part of the recovery curve” narrative. |
TPG | “Renewed interest” from institutional LPs in real estate over last 1.5 years. “Significant increase in interest across both high-return opportunistic space and income-oriented opportunities.” “Quite bullish” that real estate fundraises will receive “very strong reception.” | Institutional real estate demand recovering; positive for BX’s BREP fundraising cycle. |
KKR | Listed “opportunistic real estate credit” as a future fundraising opportunity within real assets. | Modest positive; real estate credit market opening up. |
Peer | Key Commentary (Q1 2026 Earnings, May 2026) | BX Read-Through |
Ares | “Strong possibility that deployment will pick up in U.S. direct lending pretty aggressively as we head into the back half of the year.” Current environment offering “wider spreads, higher fees and better terms.” Forward investment pipeline at “new record level.” | Private credit deployment environment improving in H2; positive for BX’s credit segment FRE and deployment. |
KKR | “Meaningful inbound interest from institutions around our direct lending business” in recent weeks. Institutions viewing “current dislocation as an interesting entry point.” “Spreads are up, fees are up, terms are better, and leverage is down.” | Institutional private credit demand recovering; validates BX’s narrative that institutional/insurance channels are robust despite wealth channel noise. |
Apollo | “The big growth in private credit is going to be in the IG universe.” Plans to launch 100% daily pricing for credit business. Expects Q2 origination to be “even stronger” than Q1’s $71B. | Investment-grade private credit is the next growth frontier — directly relevant to BX’s credit platform expansion. |
Carlyle | Feels “well positioned to take advantage if credit markets experience increased volatility.” Good fundraising momentum in credit, nearly $4B raised in Q1. | Credit fundraising environment remains constructive. |
Peer | Key Commentary (Q1 2026 Earnings, May 2026) | BX Read-Through |
Apollo | CapEx investment by 5 primary hyperscalers estimated to exceed “$800 billion this year” and “almost $1 trillion next year.” “Private capital has a major role to play in this ecosystem.” | AI infrastructure investment cycle is massive and accelerating; directly validates BX’s $160B+ data center portfolio and pipeline. |
KKR | “Digital infrastructure remains a massive theme.” Expects “massive investment” in data centers, fixed line, and mobile infrastructure. Focused on being “very disciplined” given significant capital already deployed. | Infrastructure deployment environment remains robust; BX’s scale as the largest data center investor is a competitive advantage. |
Brookfield AM | “Exceptional client interest and a very large opportunity set” in infrastructure. Demand for energy at “unprecedented high.” AI is a “very significant tailwind” — “as AI adoption accelerates, Brookfield’s market-leading position and a very large portion of our assets become increasingly valuable.” | Infrastructure and AI tailwinds are industry-wide; BX’s positioning as the largest AI infrastructure investor globally is a key differentiator. |
TPG | Climate infrastructure activity expected to “accelerate in future years.” GP-led secondaries expected to exceed 2025 record. | Infrastructure and secondaries are both in strong cycles; positive for BX’s infrastructure and secondaries platforms. |
Key Takeaway: The most notable activity is Schwarzman’s large open-market purchase of ~9.5M shares on May 15 at ~$117-118 — a very large buy by the founder at the stock’s lows that preceded the recovery. The June 23 buy of ~765K shares on the same day as the realization 8-K is a positive signal, though the June 16 sale of 7.48M shares was significantly larger. On net, the May buy at the lows is the more meaningful signal for long-term conviction.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Shares | Est. Value | Transaction Date | Disclosure Date | Note |
Stephen Schwarzman | 10% Owner / Founder | Open Market Buy | 765,111 | ~$92M (est.) | June 23, 2026 | June 24, 2026 | Indirect ownership; same day as realization 8-K pre-announcement — notable positive signal |
Stephen Schwarzman | 10% Owner / Founder | Open Market Sale | 7,477,500 | ~$955M (est.) | June 16, 2026 | June 18, 2026 | Indirect ownership; discretionary sale; significantly larger than the subsequent June 23 buy |
Stephen Schwarzman | 10% Owner / Founder | Open Market Buy | 9,486,795 | ~$1.1B (est.) | May 15, 2026 | May 19, 2026 | Indirect ownership; very large buy at ~$117-118 price level — preceded the stock’s recovery from lows; most meaningful conviction signal |
Ruth Porat | Director | Open Market Buy | 355 (direct) + 84 (indirect) | ~$50K (est.) | May 11, 2026 | May 13, 2026 | Small routine director purchase; direct and indirect ownership |
Vikrant Sawhney | Chief Administrative Officer | Open Market Sale | 30,014 | ~$3.5M (est.) | May 1, 2026 | May 1, 2026 | Discretionary sale; relatively small in context |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. All transactions are open-market (Form 4 codes P/S). Estimated values based on approximate share price at transaction date. Indirect ownership denotes holdings through trusts or other entities.