BX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
BX Report DE/share BEAT pred ~$1.38 vs. cons $1.358 MEDIUM
BX Report Fee-related earnings IN-LINE pred ~$1.60B vs. cons $1.585B MEDIUM
BX Report Gross inflows BEAT pred ~$55.0B vs. cons $54.44B LOW
BX Guide FRE trajectory (2H 2026) UNKNOWN moderate near-term growth; later-2026 acceleration; no numerical guide vs. cons UNVERIFIED LOW
BX Guide Realizations / performance revenue (2H 2026) UNKNOWN conditional acceleration; no numerical guide vs. cons UNVERIFIED LOW
BX Guide Wealth / private-credit flows (Q3 2026) UNKNOWN aggregate recovery but BCRED remains softer; no numerical guide vs. cons UNVERIFIED LOW
BX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.0% LOW
BX Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — implicit forward caution should keep revisions soft LOW