{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Core operating EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.85 vs. cons $6.67 (Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Underlying (ex-cat) combined ratio",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~82.4% vs. cons 82.6% (Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "P&C headline combined ratio",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~84.8% vs. cons 85.7% (Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted net investment income guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.86B vs. cons $1.83B (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Consolidated NPW growth outlook",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~+4.0% vs. cons +5.5% (H2 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 EPS / tangible book value growth commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~+10% vs. cons +9% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.2,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.3,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock already up ~13% since June 22 into the print, so even a Q2 beat on core EPS/underlying ratio is likely 'priced in'; management's blunt Q1 commentary on accelerating large-account property price declines (25%\u219230%+) implies further deliberate NPW/premium shrinkage in H2, which should pull consensus H2 2026/FY2026 NPW and EPS estimates down over the following days, echoing the Q1 2026 pattern where headline metrics disappointed despite solid underlying trends\u2014driving a fade rather than follow-through.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}