| CHTR |
Report |
Residential broadband net adds |
MISS |
pred ~-160K vs. cons -142K |
MEDIUM |
| CHTR |
Report |
Mobile line net adadadds |
IN-LINE |
pred ~378K vs. cons 380K |
MEDIUM |
| CHTR |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$5.60B vs. cons $5.58B |
MEDIUM |
| CHTR |
Guide |
Cox close timing (California PUC) |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~Q3'26 close vs. cons summer'26 target (2026 close) |
LOW |
| CHTR |
Guide |
Cox run-rate opex synergies |
BETTER |
guide ~$800M+ vs. prior $500M (post-close run-rate) |
MEDIUM |
| CHTR |
Guide |
2026 capex |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$11.4B vs. cons $11.4B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| CHTR |
Guide |
FY26 EBITDA ex-transition (political ad tailwind) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~+1% growth vs. cons ~+0.5% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| CHTR |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.0% |
— |
LOW |
| CHTR |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.5% (FADE) |
Washed-out sentiment (stock -40% YTD, bar very low) plus a likely Cox close confirmation supports a modest day-1 relief bounce even on a soft broadband number. But out-period math works against it: a broadband miss (~-160K vs -142K) reinforces the secular top-of-funnel narrative, driving analysts to trim out-year sub/EBITDA/FCF estimates, while Cox dilution (~46M shares) and pro-forma leverage (3.5-3.75x) overhang the model. The initial pop fades back toward/below flat as revisions drift lower. |
LOW |