{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Residential broadband net adds",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~-160K vs. cons -142K",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Mobile line net adadadds",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~378K vs. cons 380K",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.60B vs. cons $5.58B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Cox close timing (California PUC)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~Q3'26 close vs. cons summer'26 target (2026 close)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Cox run-rate opex synergies",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$800M+ vs. prior $500M (post-close run-rate)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2026 capex",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$11.4B vs. cons $11.4B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 EBITDA ex-transition (political ad tailwind)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~+1% growth vs. cons ~+0.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Washed-out sentiment (stock -40% YTD, bar very low) plus a likely Cox close confirmation supports a modest day-1 relief bounce even on a soft broadband number. But out-period math works against it: a broadband miss (~-160K vs -142K) reinforces the secular top-of-funnel narrative, driving analysts to trim out-year sub/EBITDA/FCF estimates, while Cox dilution (~46M shares) and pro-forma leverage (3.5-3.75x) overhang the model. The initial pop fades back toward/below flat as revisions drift lower.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}