CHTR Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-24

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CHTR Report Adjusted EPS MISS pred ~$9.55 vs. cons $10.05 MEDIUM
CHTR Report Residential Broadband Net Adds (losses) MISS pred ~-160K vs. cons -142K MEDIUM
CHTR Report Total Revenue MISS pred ~$13.30B vs. cons $13.51B MEDIUM
CHTR Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth (ex-transition costs) LOWER guide ~1.5% growth vs. cons ~3.0% growth (FY2026) MEDIUM
CHTR Guide FY2026 Residential Internet ARPU Growth LOWER guide ~0.0% vs. cons ~+1.0% (FY2026) MEDIUM
CHTR Guide FY2026 Capital Expenditures UNCHANGED guide ~$11.4B vs. cons $11.4B (FY2026) HIGH
CHTR Guide Cox Transaction Synergy Target UNCHANGED guide ~$800M vs. prior/cons $800M (multi-year, post-close run-rate) HIGH
CHTR Guide Net Debt/EBITDA Leverage (Cox pendency) UNCHANGED guide ~4.25x vs. cons ~4.20x (Q2 2026, pre-Cox close) MEDIUM
CHTR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -9.0% MEDIUM
CHTR Return 5-day cumulative residual -13.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Implicit full-year EBITDA/ARPU guide-downs plus a 5th consecutive EPS miss should trigger further negative estimate revisions into and beyond the print, echoing the Q1 pattern where the stock kept sliding ~8-9% in the days after the initial post-earnings drop as sell-side models were cut. With no offsetting catalyst before the Aug 13 CPUC vote (three weeks out) and Zacks ESP already deeply negative, out-period math (weaker ARPU/EBITDA trajectory feeding FY26-27 consensus) argues for continued drift lower rather than a snap-back, though the stock's already-depressed valuation (84% off highs) caps the magnitude versus the Q1 shock. MEDIUM