Report: Friday, July 24, 2026, before the market open
Conference call: 8:00 a.m. ET (ir.charter.com)
Charter enters the quarter with expectations—and its share price—already severely compressed. The stock closed July 23 at $126.53, down approximately 40% year to date and 48% since the day before its first-quarter report.
That makes the setup potentially asymmetric, but not necessarily low-risk. The market is questioning whether Charter’s broadband losses are cyclical and fixable or evidence of permanent share erosion from fiber, fixed wireless and satellite competition. Meanwhile, roughly $94 billion of debt, elevated capital spending and the pending Cox transaction magnify the equity consequences of relatively small changes in EBITDA and free cash flow.
The most important number tomorrow is therefore broadband net additions, followed by management’s full-year EBITDA outlook and its explanation of gross-add trends. A conventional EPS beat will matter much less.
Approximate consensus compiled ahead of the report:
| Metric | 2Q26 expectation | Relevant comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$13.5B | $13.77B in 2Q25 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ~$5.58B | $5.69B in 2Q25 |
| Free cash flow | ~$1.13B | $1.05B in 2Q25 |
| Residential Internet net adds | ~(142K) | (117K) in 1Q26; (111K) in 2Q25 |
| Mobile line net adds | ~380K | 368K in 1Q26; 500K in 2Q25 |
| Video net adds | ~(54K) | (60K) in 1Q26; (80K) in 2Q25 |
Charter’s official investor site contains the historical quarterly materials used for the comparisons. (ir.charter.com)
Charter lost 120,000 total Internet customers in 1Q26, including 117,000 residential customers. Management attributed the weakness primarily to lower gross additions rather than worsening churn:
This distinction is central to the investment debate. Weak gross adds with stable churn could plausibly improve through better marketing, offers and housing activity. Accelerating churn would suggest a more structural problem with Charter’s network, pricing or brand.
A loss closer to 100,000 would likely be interpreted as meaningful stabilization. A result materially above 150,000—especially if accompanied by higher churn—would reinforce the bear case.
Management said in April that full-year Internet ARPU growth could finish slightly positive or negative, depending on promotional tuning, loyalty migrations and pricing decisions.
Charter has been moving existing customers onto its newer pricing and packaging, often providing additional speed or mobile service for the same price or a modest increase. That can improve retention and lifetime value but pressure near-term reported ARPU.
Investors should separate:
Any new price increase would support near-term revenue but could undermine Charter’s claim that its lower, simpler pricing is a sustainable competitive advantage.
After a 2.2% reported EBITDA decline in 1Q26, management maintained its plan to grow full-year EBITDA slightly, excluding Cox transition expenses. Political advertising is an important part of that expected improvement.
The second quarter has several puts and takes:
A reported EBITDA result around consensus may be acceptable if management confidently reiterates slight full-year growth. Conversely, even a modest quarterly beat may not help if the annual outlook is softened.
Charter now allocates the cost of streaming applications included with its video packages against video revenue. In 1Q26 this reduced reported revenue by $218 million, versus only $47 million in 1Q25. The corresponding programming expense is also lower.
Because 2Q25 included only $67 million of these allocations, the year-over-year reported revenue comparison could again look materially worse than the underlying economics.
Investors should focus on:
Video has quietly become one of Charter’s better operating stories: losses have improved dramatically as the company added streaming services to traditional packages and introduced lighter, lower-cost options. The key question is whether that improvement is economically durable rather than merely the result of lower pricing.
Charter ended 1Q26 with 12.1 million mobile lines, up 17% year over year, after adding 368,000 lines. Mobile service revenue increased 15%.
Consensus expects roughly 380,000 additions in 2Q. That would represent modest sequential improvement but a notable slowdown from the 500,000 lines added in 2Q25.
The important issues extend beyond the headline additions:
There may also be questions about reported talks between Charter and SpaceX regarding a consumer mobile partnership. Bloomberg reported that Charter could carry some SpaceX phone traffic over its terrestrial infrastructure, although no agreement has been announced. (news.bloomberglaw.com) Management commentary could help determine whether this is a meaningful wholesale opportunity, a broader strategic relationship or merely exploratory discussions.
Charter reaffirmed approximately $11.4 billion of 2026 capital expenditures after spending $2.86 billion in the first quarter. Spending is elevated by:
Management’s longer-term claim is that annual capital spending should decline to below $8 billion by 2028 as the upgrade and expansion programs mature. That potential reduction is a major part of the valuation case.
Quarterly free cash flow can be noisy because of cash-interest, tax, device-working-capital and accrued-capex timing. More important tomorrow will be:
At the first-quarter call, Charter said it had received all required federal and state approvals except California and was working toward a summer closing. The company previously targeted completion around mid-2026, subject to regulatory approvals. (ir.charter.com)
Management also raised expected run-rate operating synergies from $500 million to at least $800 million, excluding potential revenue synergies and capital savings.
Tomorrow, investors will want:
The transaction is strategically attractive if Charter can lower Cox’s broadband pricing while materially raising mobile and video penetration. But it also increases execution complexity and pushes the company toward deleveraging at a time when the standalone business is shrinking.
Charter ended 1Q with approximately $94.3 billion of debt principal and net leverage of 4.15x, or 4.22x pro forma for the Liberty Broadband transaction.
It repurchased $963 million of stock in 1Q at an average price around $225, far above today’s price. Shares are now substantially cheaper, but the pending Cox transaction and post-close deleveraging target may constrain the pace at which Charter can capitalize on that valuation.
Watch for:
The market is no longer valuing Charter primarily on near-term EPS. It is valuing the company on whether broadband and EBITDA can stabilize before leverage and transaction complexity overwhelm the future capex-driven free-cash-flow upside.
The stock’s collapse means merely meeting depressed estimates may generate relief. But a durable rerating likely requires three things together:
Of those, broadband gross additions and churn commentary will be the most important information in tomorrow’s report.