{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Combined Ratio - P&C (%)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~95.5% vs cons 97.3%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Operating EPS ($)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.05 vs cons $1.82",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net Written Premium - P&C ($B)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.85B vs cons $2.90B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Pricing tone - commercial lines (FY 2026 qualitative)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide 'softening on larger accounts' vs cons implicit low-single-digit",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Investment income trajectory (FY 2026)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.28-1.30B vs cons $1.287B",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Reserve posture / social inflation (FY 2026 qualitative)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide cautious 'not out of the woods' vs cons neutral",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "FADE - NWP miss and pricing softening commentary pulls forward estimates lower; pre-print run unwinds on beat-but-no-raise archetype",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}