| CME |
Report |
Adjusted diluted EPS |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$2.97 vs. cons $2.95 |
MEDIUM |
| CME |
Report |
Total net revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$1.64B vs. cons $1.63B |
MEDIUM |
| CME |
Report |
Market data revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$222M vs. cons $215M |
MEDIUM |
| CME |
Guide |
FY2026 adjusted operating expense guide (ex-license) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1.695B vs. cons ~$1.70B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| CME |
Guide |
Blended rate per contract (RPC) trajectory |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$0.665 vs. cons ~$0.66 (Q2/forward) |
LOW |
| CME |
Guide |
Investment income on collateral (rate-sensitive, easing Fed) |
LOWER |
guide ~$112M vs. cons ~$118M (Q3 run-rate) |
LOW |
| CME |
Guide |
Capital return: remaining OSTTRA-proceeds buyback |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$0.76B remaining vs. cons ~$0.75B (FY2026) |
LOW |
| CME |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.0% |
— |
LOW |
| CME |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.5% (FADE) |
Volumes are already public, so the print itself is near fully in the price; a low-bar, de-rated stock (~27% off March high, down ~3% into the print) can pop modestly on an in-line/slightly-better EPS and firm market-data line, but the out-period math cuts the other way: Q1's record IR/Treasury volatility won't repeat, June's mix (equity/crypto surge, more micros) plus tiering keeps RPC drifting, and an easing Warsh-led Fed trims float income — so sell-side trims H2 estimates even after a beat. The unresolved perpetual-futures/Kalshi/CFTC overhang and CEO-transition uncertainty cap multiple re-rating, so the initial relief bounce fades. |
LOW |