{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.97 vs. cons $2.95",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total net revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.64B vs. cons $1.63B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Market data revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$222M vs. cons $215M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 adjusted operating expense guide (ex-license)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.695B vs. cons ~$1.70B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Blended rate per contract (RPC) trajectory",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$0.665 vs. cons ~$0.66 (Q2/forward)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Investment income on collateral (rate-sensitive, easing Fed)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$112M vs. cons ~$118M (Q3 run-rate)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital return: remaining OSTTRA-proceeds buyback",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$0.76B remaining vs. cons ~$0.75B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Volumes are already public, so the print itself is near fully in the price; a low-bar, de-rated stock (~27% off March high, down ~3% into the print) can pop modestly on an in-line/slightly-better EPS and firm market-data line, but the out-period math cuts the other way: Q1's record IR/Treasury volatility won't repeat, June's mix (equity/crypto surge, more micros) plus tiering keeps RPC drifting, and an easing Warsh-led Fed trims float income \u2014 so sell-side trims H2 estimates even after a beat. The unresolved perpetual-futures/Kalshi/CFTC overhang and CEO-transition uncertainty cap multiple re-rating, so the initial relief bounce fades.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}