CME Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CME Report Total Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$1.705B vs. cons $1.71B MEDIUM
CME Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$3.02 vs. cons $2.98 MEDIUM
CME Report Average Daily Volume (ADV, contracts) MISS pred ~29.8M vs. cons ~30.5M MEDIUM
CME Guide FY2026 Adjusted Opex ex-license fees UNCHANGED guide ~$1.70B vs. cons $1.695B (FY2026) MEDIUM
CME Guide Market data revenue growth outlook LOWER guide ~13% vs. cons 14.6% (Q3 2026) LOW
CME Guide Rate-per-contract (RPC) trend LOWER guide ~$0.65 vs. cons $0.66 (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
CME Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
CME Return 5-day cumulative residual +3.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Bar was already lowered into the print (30-day downward EPS revisions, Zacks #4 Sell, tough Q2'25 comp), so an EPS beat plus documented May/June ADV reacceleration (33.2M and 30.6M records) gives sell-side (KBW, Redburn, Piper already bullish at ~$313-320 PT) ammunition to raise H2 volume/EPS estimates even as RPC mix compression and litigation overhang persist; oversold bounce (stock -28-30% off highs) plus new product catalysts (Single Stock Futures July 27) support continued drift higher over the week rather than a fade, though unresolved CFTC/perpetuals litigation caps upside and could truncate follow-through if commentary disappoints. MEDIUM