CME Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CME Report Adjusted diluted EPS MISS pred ~$2.89 vs. cons $2.96 MEDIUM
CME Report Total revenue MISS pred ~$1.67B vs. cons $1.72B MEDIUM
CME Report Clearing and transaction-fee revenue MISS pred ~$1.33B vs. cons $1.38B MEDIUM
CME Guide Adjusted operating expense excluding license fees UNCHANGED guide ~$1.695B vs. cons $1.695B (FY2026) HIGH
CME Guide Implied 2H26 adjusted operating expense excluding license fees LOWER guide ~$0.85B vs. cons $0.87B (2H2026) MEDIUM
CME Guide July average daily volume commentary BETTER guide ~31.0M contracts vs. cons 30.5M contracts (July 2026) LOW
CME Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.8% MEDIUM
CME Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.6% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A modest headline revenue/EPS miss is likely to be compounded by lower rate-per-contract and clearing-fee expectations; unchanged full-year expense guidance limits downside but does not offset negative out-period revenue and EPS revisions. MEDIUM