CME Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CME Report Total ADV (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~29.8M vs cons 30.26M HIGH
CME Report Diluted Operating EPS (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~$2.82 vs cons $2.897 MEDIUM
CME Report Total Revenue (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~$1,660M vs cons $1,678M MEDIUM
CME Guide FY 2026 Adj Opex excl. license fees (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide ~$1.695B vs cons $2.108B total opex HIGH
CME Guide Qualitative: H2 volume/OI trajectory (FY 2026) UNCHANGED OI at record highs cited; cautious on near-term ADV normalization MEDIUM
CME Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.5% MEDIUM
CME Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.5% (STABILIZE) STABILIZE — estimates cut modestly on FY implied math; no near-term catalyst; CEO transition discount persists MEDIUM