COF Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
COF Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$4.95 vs. cons $4.88 MEDIUM
COF Report Total Net Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$15.75B vs. cons $15.70B MEDIUM
COF Report Domestic Card Net Charge-off Rate BEAT pred ~4.6% vs. cons 4.8% MEDIUM
COF Guide Net Interest Margin BETTER guide ~7.95% vs. cons 7.90% (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
COF Guide Efficiency Ratio (Brex/Hopper investment spend) LOWER guide ~55.3% vs. cons 54.8% (FY2026) MEDIUM
COF Guide Share Buyback Pace / Capital Return BETTER guide ~$2.7B vs. cons $2.5B (Q3 2026) LOW
COF Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
COF Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.3% (FADE) Initial pop from a credit-quality/NCO beat and NIM stabilization (extra-day lift, cash normalizing) likely fades over the week as analysts digest that Q3 2026 remains a tough Discover-driven comp, expense synergies stay back-loaded to 1H27, and Brex/Hopper integration spend plus elevated oil/inflation macro keep out-period EPS revisions guarded — especially given the stock already ran up ~8% into the print, front-loading much of the good-news case. MEDIUM