COF Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
COF Report Domestic Card NCO Rate BEAT pred ~4.75% vs. cons 4.90% MEDIUM
COF Report Net Interest Margin BEAT pred ~8.15% vs. cons 8.02% MEDIUM
COF Report Adjusted EPS IN-LINE pred ~$4.85 vs. cons $4.82 LOW
COF Guide NIM trajectory (Q3 2026) BETTER guide ~8.10-8.20% vs. cons 8.02% MEDIUM
COF Guide Efficiency ratio / Brex (Q3 2026) UNCHANGED guide >55%, investment-driven vs. cons ~55.4% HIGH
COF Guide Discover integration (qualitative) BETTER Sept. origination milestone confirmed MEDIUM
COF Guide ROTCE / FY earnings power UNCHANGED reiterate prior language vs. $19.84 FY cons HIGH
COF Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
COF Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.5% (STABILIZE) STABILIZE — credit beat causes modest H2 estimate nudge; Brex/efficiency ratio caps follow-through; short covering provides a bid but DTC too low for squeeze MEDIUM