CSX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CSX Report Adjusted operating ratio MISS pred ~64.0% vs. cons 63.2% MEDIUM
CSX Report EPS (adj.) MISS pred ~$0.49 vs. cons $0.51 MEDIUM
CSX Report Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$3.83B vs. cons $3.85B MEDIUM
CSX Guide FY26 operating-margin expansion UNCHANGED guide ~200-300bps, high end vs. cons ~250bps (FY2026) MEDIUM
CSX Guide FY26 revenue growth UNCHANGED guide ~mid-single-digit (+4-5%) vs. cons ~+5% (FY2026) LOW
CSX Guide M&A advisory costs / UP-NS consolidation stance UNKNOWN guide advisory cost ~$20-40M vs. cons ~n/a (Q2/FY2026) LOW
CSX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.5% MEDIUM
CSX Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Into a rich +45% 12-mo run near 52-wk highs with consensus embedding a clean beat (EPS +16%, OR down ~90bps), pre-flagged Q2 headwinds (no ~$44M real-estate gain, locomotive overhaul timing, incentive comp, M&A advisory, ~100bps fuel margin drag) likely muddy the margin line. A margin/EPS miss triggers modest downward out-period EPS revisions that drift estimates lower even if revenue is fine; merger optionality provides a partial floor but not enough to reverse, so the initial idiosyncratic drop follows through rather than fully recovering. LOW