{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted operating ratio",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~64.0% vs. cons 63.2%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "EPS (adj.)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.49 vs. cons $0.51",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.83B vs. cons $3.85B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 operating-margin expansion",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~200-300bps, high end vs. cons ~250bps (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 revenue growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~mid-single-digit (+4-5%) vs. cons ~+5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "M&A advisory costs / UP-NS consolidation stance",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide advisory cost ~$20-40M vs. cons ~n/a (Q2/FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Into a rich +45% 12-mo run near 52-wk highs with consensus embedding a clean beat (EPS +16%, OR down ~90bps), pre-flagged Q2 headwinds (no ~$44M real-estate gain, locomotive overhaul timing, incentive comp, M&A advisory, ~100bps fuel margin drag) likely muddy the margin line. A margin/EPS miss triggers modest downward out-period EPS revisions that drift estimates lower even if revenue is fine; merger optionality provides a partial floor but not enough to reverse, so the initial idiosyncratic drop follows through rather than fully recovering.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}