CSX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CSX Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$0.52 vs. cons $0.50 MEDIUM
CSX Report Total Revenue BEAT pred ~$3.90B vs. cons $3.85B MEDIUM
CSX Report Adjusted Operating Ratio MISS pred ~64.0% vs. cons 63.2% (higher/worse OR) MEDIUM
CSX Guide FY2026 Revenue Growth Guidance BETTER guide ~6% vs. cons ~5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
CSX Guide FY2026 Operating Margin Expansion (bps) UNCHANGED guide ~275bps vs. cons ~260bps (FY2026, high end of prior 200-300bps range reaffirmed) MEDIUM
CSX Guide FY2026 Free Cash Flow Growth BETTER guide ~60% vs. cons ~55% (FY2026, vs 2025 FCF) MEDIUM
CSX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.2% MEDIUM
CSX Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.5% (FADE) Q2 top-line beat likely offset by OR miss from flagged non-repeat items (no $44M real-estate gain, higher locomotive overhaul costs, incentive comp, elevated fuel) that don't fully reverse next quarter, pressuring analysts to trim H2 margin/EPS estimates even after a headline beat. Stock is up ~38% YTD and trading near price targets, leaving little room for multiple expansion, so any cost/OR disappointment triggers profit-taking. Additional overhang from the STB's July 27 UP-NS supplemental-information deadline (days after the print) creates headline risk that discourages chasing strength, reinforcing a fade rather than follow-through over the week. MEDIUM