CSX Corporation (CSX) — 2Q26 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup favors a beat — volume is running ~200 bps above internal targets quarter-to-date and cost execution has been the standout story — but the bar has risen meaningfully since Q1, and the market will be watching whether margin expansion can hold against higher fuel costs, the absence of the $44M Q1 real estate gain, and incremental advisory/incentive comp expenses in Q2.

CSX heads into its 2Q26 print with genuine momentum: as of the May 13 BofA conference, CFO Kevin Boone disclosed that carloads were running +4.5% quarter-to-date, roughly 200 basis points above the company's own internal target, with the prior week's 132,000 carloads representing one of the best weekly volumes since 2018. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to mid-single-digit growth (from low single digits) and guided operating margin expansion toward the high end of the 200–300 bps range after a Q1 that saw operating income surge 20% and EPS jump 26% year-over-year. The estimate trajectory has been constructive: consensus 2Q26 EPS has drifted up from $0.494 at the post-Q1 baseline to $0.513 currently, and the stock has re-rated sharply — up ~15% since the April 22 earnings date — suggesting the market has already priced in a solid quarter, leaving less room for upside surprise on the multiple. The key wildcard is the UNP–NSC merger process: CSX is incurring advisory costs related to industry consolidation that will weigh on Q2 expenses, and any STB development or competitive commentary from management could move the stock independent of the operating result. On the cost side, the absence of the $44M real estate gain, higher fuel prices, and a sequential step-up in incentive compensation are known headwinds that consensus has likely absorbed, but the magnitude of the offset from continued efficiency savings (100+ initiatives underway) will be the decisive swing factor for the operating ratio print.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus sets a moderately high bar on volume (carloads +5.7% YoY implied) but a more achievable bar on operating ratio (~62.9%), given that Q1 already printed 64.0% OR. Operating EPS ($0.513) is the primary swing factor — the question is whether cost discipline can offset the known Q2 headwinds (fuel, no real estate gain, advisory costs) and sustain the margin expansion trajectory.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (2Q26 Key KPIs)

Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/CSX/NMV/IS, /RV, /CF, /SP); CSX Q1 2026 Earnings Release (April 22, 2026); CSX Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript; BofA Conference Transcript (May 13, 2026).

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs: Operating EPS & Total Carloads)

Operating EPS (Diluted, Adjusted)

Pattern: CSX has beaten on operating EPS in 4 of the last 8 quarters, with the most recent Q1 2026 delivering the largest positive surprise (+10.7%) in the trailing 8-quarter window; however, the company missed in 4 of 8 quarters (including 3 consecutive misses from 3Q24 through 4Q25), suggesting the bar is now higher and execution consistency will be scrutinized.

Total Carloads

Pattern: Carloads have been remarkably consistent — CSX has beaten or matched consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters, with surprises generally within ±0.5%; volume is rarely the source of large earnings surprises, making cost execution and yield the primary drivers of EPS beats or misses.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/CSX/NMV/IS, /RV, /SP).

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Management raised both revenue and margin guidance at Q1 earnings (April 22), and the tone at the May 13 BofA conference was constructive — no subsequent guidance changes have been issued, but CFO Boone flagged specific Q2 cost headwinds (fuel, no real estate gain, advisory costs, incentive comp step-up) that investors should model carefully.

Sources: CSX Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (April 22, 2026); CSX 8-K (May 14, 2026); BofA Industrials, Transportation & Airlines Conference Transcript (May 13, 2026); Visible Alpha Consensus Data.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have moved constructively higher since the Q1 print — 2Q26 EPS consensus is up ~4% from the post-Q1 baseline and FY2026 EPS is up ~2% — tracking with management’s raised guidance. The gap between current consensus and guidance is narrow, suggesting the market has largely absorbed the upgrade; further upside would require cost execution to exceed the already-raised bar.

Commentary: The revision pattern is unambiguously positive — every key metric has been revised upward since the Q1 print, tracking management’s raised guidance. The most notable observation is that the 2Q26 carload consensus (1,670K) remains below the QTD run-rate implied by the +4.5% trend disclosed at the May 13 BofA conference, suggesting potential volume upside that has not been fully captured in consensus. The operating ratio estimate has been stable since the post-Q1 baseline, implying the market has priced in the known Q2 cost headwinds (fuel, no real estate gain, advisory costs) without further deterioration.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (https://insights.visiblealpha.com/mex/CSX/NMV/IS, /RV, /SP); CSX Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript; BofA Conference Transcript (May 13, 2026).

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: CSX has outperformed both IYT and the S&P 500 since the April 22 earnings date, with the stock up ~+15.5% vs. IYT +10.4% and SPY +5.2% — the re-rating has been driven primarily by multiple expansion (~6% NTM EV/EBITDA expansion) rather than estimate revisions alone, suggesting the market is paying up for the cost-execution story and the Howard Street Tunnel growth optionality.

The chart below shows CSX, IYT (iShares Transportation Average ETF), and SPY (S&P 500 ETF) indexed to 100 at the April 22, 2026 earnings date. Key events are marked with vertical dashed lines.

Performance Summary (Apr 22 – Jul 21, 2026):

• CSX: +$6.71 / +15.5% (from $43.18 to $49.89)
• IYT (Transportation ETF): +$8.33 / +10.4% (from $80.22 to $88.55)
• SPY (S&P 500): +$37.07 / +5.2% (from $711.21 to $748.28)

Key Observations:

• Day +1 reaction (Apr 23): CSX surged +7.0% on the Q1 earnings beat, significantly outperforming IYT (+1.7%) and SPY (−0.4%), confirming the market’s positive reception of the cost execution story.
• May 14 — $5B Buyback Authorization: CSX rose +3.3% on the day, outperforming the market; the buyback announcement reinforced management confidence in FCF generation.
• Multiple expansion is the primary driver: NTM EV/EBITDA expanded from ~14.1x to ~14.9x over the 3-month window (+5.9%), accounting for the majority of the stock’s outperformance vs. the market. Estimate revisions contributed ~2–4% to the move.
• Stock is not cheap heading into the print: At 23.9x NTM P/E and 14.9x NTM EV/EBITDA, CSX is trading at a premium to its 12-month-ago levels (19.3x P/E, 12.1x EV/EBITDA), leaving less room for multiple expansion on a beat.

Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance); CSX Stock Performance Decomposition Data.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the $5 billion share buyback authorization (May 14) and the opening of the Howard Street Tunnel to double-stack operations — together, these signal management’s confidence in the FCF trajectory and unlock a new intermodal growth vector that could drive incremental volume over the next 2–3 bid cycles.

• May 14, 2026 — $5 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization (8-K): CSX’s Board authorized a new $5B buyback program, replacing the prior authorization. This is the single largest capital return signal since the new CEO Steve Angel took over, and directly supports the FCF conversion narrative.
• Early May 2026 — Howard Street Tunnel Opens for Double-Stack Operations: The first double-stack train ran through the Howard Street Tunnel in early May 2026, completing a multi-year infrastructure project. This doubles capacity on the Baltimore-to-Chicago corridor, takes approximately one day out of transit times, and opens new markets previously unserved efficiently. Management has guided to 75,000–125,000 incremental loads over 2–3 bid cycles.
• May 13, 2026 — BofA Conference (CFO Kevin Boone): Boone disclosed that carloads were running +4.5% QTD, ~200 bps above internal targets, with the prior week’s 132,000 carloads among the best since 2018. He confirmed Q2/Q3 are seasonally the best margin quarters and reiterated the cost initiative pipeline for 2027 is already being built.
• May 14, 2026 — New Chief Digital & Technology Officer Named (8-K): CSX announced a new Digital & Technology Chief alongside the buyback authorization, signaling accelerated investment in AI and data analytics for crew management, pricing, and capital deployment optimization.
• May 31, 2026 — Norfolk Southern COO Transition (NSC 8-K): NSC appointed Brian Barr as COO, a former CSX Senior VP of Network Planning (2021–2023). This is a competitive read-through — a senior CSX alumnus now leads operations at CSX’s primary Eastern competitor, potentially accelerating NSC’s operational improvement trajectory.
• April 23, 2026 — Morgan Stanley Downgrade to Underweight: Morgan Stanley downgraded CSX from Equal Weight to Underweight the day after Q1 earnings, citing valuation concerns after the stock’s sharp post-earnings rally. The stock has continued to outperform since the downgrade, suggesting the market has disagreed with the call.
• June 22, 2026 — CSX Announces 2Q26 Earnings Date: CSX confirmed the 2Q26 earnings release and call for July 22, 2026 at 4:30 PM ET.
• Ongoing — UNP–NSC Merger Process (STB Procedural Clock Started May 29, 2026): The STB accepted the UNP–NSC merger application and the 12-month procedural clock started May 29, 2026, implying a decision around May 2027 plus 90 days. CSX is incurring advisory costs related to this process (flagged as a Q2 expense headwind). Management has stated it will focus on execution to be in a position of strength regardless of outcome. This is the single biggest long-term strategic wildcard for CSX.

Sources: CSX 8-K (May 14, 2026); CSX Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript; BofA Conference Transcript (May 13, 2026); NSC 8-K (May 31, 2026); UNP European Investor Conference Transcript (June 16, 2026); Analyst Rating Change Data (Morgan Stanley, April 23, 2026).

7. Peer Commentaries & Read-Throughs

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the last 60 days is broadly constructive for CSX’s 2Q26 setup — volume trends across Class I railroads are running ahead of expectations, trucking market tightening is driving modal conversion, and energy/chemicals demand is robust. The primary risk flagged by peers is the murky macro backdrop for the second half and the competitive implications of the UNP–NSC merger.

Note on Scope: All commentary below is from events occurring between May 13, 2026 and July 21, 2026 (last 60 days). Only commentary about the current reporting quarter (2Q26 ending June 30, 2026) or forward-looking guidance is included. Retrospective commentary about prior-quarter results has been excluded. Each item is labeled by company and event.

7A. CSX Direct — BofA Industrials, Transportation & Airlines Conference (May 13, 2026)

Source: CSX CFO Kevin Boone at BofA Conference, May 13, 2026

This is the most important forward-looking data point for 2Q26. Key disclosures:

• Volume running +4.5% QTD, ~200 bps above internal target: "Your carloads are up 4.5% quarter-to-date, about 200 basis points above our target." Last week’s 132,000 carloads was "the second or third best week since week 25 of 2018."
• Freight environment "cautiously optimistic": Almost every merchandise market in growth except forest products. Chemicals, aggregates, pipe/metals (LNG export projects), and domestic coal all cited as strong.
• Trucking market tightening is a tailwind: "You’ve seen the trucking market tighten. Certainly, that is helping on the domestic side." Truck conversion opportunities emerging in domestic intermodal and forest products.
• Howard Street Tunnel: "We just ran a double stack train last week." Initial wins already observed; full ramp takes 2–3 bid cycles.
• Q2 cost nuances flagged: Higher fuel prices will pressure margins "optically"; incentive comp will step up sequentially; advisory costs related to the pending M&A transaction will be a headwind.
• Fuel surcharge benefit in Q2: "From a fuel surcharge perspective, we will see some favorability versus where we were in the first quarter." 2-month lag on merchandise side means Q2 should be the last quarter with a significant fuel lag.
• CapEx target $2.3B (down ~20% YoY): Engineering efficiency improvements reducing capital spend; more capital available for growth and technology.

CSX-Specific Implication: This is direct management guidance for 2Q26. The +4.5% QTD volume trend is the single most important data point heading into the print and implies the 1,670K carload consensus estimate may be conservative.

7B. Union Pacific (UNP) — RBC Capital Markets Canadian Industrials Conference (May 21, 2026)

Source: UNP CEO Vincenzo Vena at RBC Capital Markets Canadian Industrials Conference, May 21, 2026

• Volume running well above prior year: "This week. We’re running at about 168,000 railcars versus last year at 162,000. So nice growth." This is a strong read-through for industry-wide volume momentum in 2Q26.
• Demand strength in autos, auto parts, aggregate: "Customers see on our domestic moves on autos, on auto parts, on aggregate, I can go through the whole list." Broad-based demand across industrial end-markets.
• UNP operating ratio under 60: "Our OR is under 60, and that’s a good place to be." Sets a high operational bar; CSX at ~63% OR has meaningful room to close the gap.
• Merger competitive implications for CSX: Vena explicitly acknowledged CSX as a strong competitor: "CSX is still going to be there to compete against us. They are not — and they’re a strong, big railroad, well-run smart CEO over there." However, the proposed UNP–NSC merger aims to offer "faster service across the U.S. at less cost" via single-line moves, which could pressure CSX pricing on transcontinental lanes.
• Pricing pressure warning: "They’re going to have to drop their price in what they charge if they want to compete against the new Union Pacific." This is a longer-term risk (merger decision ~May 2027 + 90 days) but relevant to CSX’s pricing power narrative.
• CSX merger interest disclosed: Vena stated publicly: "CSX wanted to merge with us. It’s out there. I would say it publicly." This confirms CSX has explored strategic options and may need to respond to a combined UNP–NSC.

CSX Read-Through: UNP’s strong volume data (+3.7% YoY railcar count) is a positive read-through for CSX’s 2Q26 volume. The merger commentary is a longer-term competitive risk, not a near-term earnings driver, but management will likely face questions on the call.

7C. Union Pacific (UNP) — European Investor Conference (June 16, 2026)

Source: UNP CFO Jennifer Hamann and Advisor Jim Vena at European Investor Conference, June 16, 2026

• Intermodal mix shift: UNP CFO noted a "change in the mix of business, more intermodal, a little bit less manifest." This is a broad industry trend that reads through to CSX’s intermodal growth thesis, particularly with the Howard Street Tunnel now open.
• STB procedural clock started May 29, 2026: The 12-month clock has started, implying a decision around May 2027 plus 90 days ("15-month process"). CSX advisory costs related to this process will be a Q2 expense headwind.
• Merger synergy targets: $1.8B revenue synergies, $1B cost synergies, $2B capital investment, $12B annual FCF projected for the combined entity. These are long-term targets (3-year implementation) and do not affect CSX’s near-term earnings.
• Truck-to-rail conversion opportunity: UNP projects removing "over 2 million truckloads off of the road" via rail conversion. This is a positive industry-wide read-through for CSX’s intermodal and merchandise segments.

CSX Read-Through: The intermodal mix shift and truck-to-rail conversion narrative are directly supportive of CSX’s 2Q26 intermodal revenue line. The merger timeline (decision ~May 2027) means competitive disruption is a 2027+ story, not a 2Q26 driver.

7D. Canadian National (CNI) — Wolfe Research Global Transportation & Industrials Conference (May 21, 2026)

Source: CNI Management at Wolfe Research Global Transportation & Industrials Conference, May 21, 2026

• 2Q26 RTMs running ~+3% QTD, ahead of expectations: "As of this morning, I would say we’re pretty close to 3% on a quarter-to-date basis in Q2. So that is running, Scott, a little bit ahead of our expectations." Positive read-through for industry-wide volume momentum.
• Metals and automotive more resilient than expected despite tariffs: "Metals and automotive that were impacted by tariffs. These segments have proven more resilient than we expected." This is a positive read-through for CSX’s metals and automotive segments, which management flagged as headwinds.
• Trucking market tightening: "We’re seeing that now start to correct itself. So we’re seeing the tightening truck rates and capacity." Consistent with CSX’s own commentary; supports modal conversion thesis.
• Rail cost inflation running 2.5–3%: "Our inflation is probably running in the 2.5% to 3% range." Driven by labor and materials. This is a useful benchmark for CSX’s own cost inflation assumptions.
• Fuel headwind on margins: "200 basis point hit from fuel" on margins in Q1 when fuel was at $95/barrel. If fuel stays above $100, "there may be just more of a headwind" year-over-year. Directly applicable to CSX’s Q2 margin guidance.
• Second half macro "still a bit murky": "When we think about the second half, I would say it’s still a bit murky the macro. And so we remain cautiously optimistic." Consistent with CSX’s own "cautiously optimistic" characterization.
• Housing market "pretty weak": Growth in lumber/forest products not expected until "U.S. mortgage rates come down a little bit and we see housing starts move up a little bit." Directly applicable to CSX’s forest products headwind.

CSX Read-Through: CNI’s QTD volume data (+3% RTMs) and resilient metals/automotive commentary are positive read-throughs for CSX’s 2Q26 volume. The fuel margin headwind and housing weakness are consistent with CSX’s own flagged risks. The "cautiously optimistic" macro tone aligns with CSX management’s posture.

7E. Canadian National (CNI) — Wells Fargo Industrials and Materials Conference (June 11, 2026)

Source: CNI Management at Wells Fargo Industrials and Materials Conference, June 11, 2026

• 2Q26 RTMs running +4% QTD, ahead of expectations: "RTMs are trending fairly well, I think plus 4% or so quarter to date, a bit ahead of expectations." Upside driven by grain, potash, energy (refined products and NGLs), and resilient metals.
• Metals resilience despite tariffs: "We’re seeing more resilience actually in the metals segment than what we would have thought given the significant tariffs." New U.S.-to-U.S. movements, new scrap train, more intra-Canada moves, and aluminum returning to the U.S.
• Fuel surcharge headwind quantified: "The fuel price uptick that we saw in the beginning of the quarter and the lag of the fuel surcharge is going to be somewhere around 3 to 4 pennies of EPS and 200/200 basis points on the OR." This is a direct read-through for CSX’s Q2 margin profile — fuel lag is a known headwind that management flagged.
• Sequential OR improvement pattern intact: "The sequential, OR improvement pattern is intact for sure, and certainly for us." Despite fuel headwind, Q2 OR expected to improve sequentially from Q1. Positive read-through for CSX’s Q2 margin trajectory.
• Second half macro "still murky": "As we look into the second half, the macro is still murky." Close attention to trade, geopolitics, consumer affordability, and energy prices.
• Capacity available for growth: "We have about 600 furloughed train and engine service employees" and "200 stored locomotives that are serviceable." Industry-wide latent capacity means volume growth can be absorbed without significant new capex — positive for incremental margins.

CSX Read-Through: CNI’s June 11 commentary is the most recent peer data point before CSX’s July 22 print. The +4% QTD RTM trend (as of early June) is consistent with CSX’s own +4.5% QTD carload trend (as of May 13) and suggests volume momentum has been sustained. The fuel lag quantification (200 bps OR headwind) is directly applicable to CSX’s Q2 margin profile.

7F. Canadian National (CNI) — Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference (May 27, 2026)

Source: CNI Management at Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, May 27, 2026

• Domestic intermodal on fifth consecutive quarter of growth: "We are on the fifth consecutive quarter of domestic intermodal growth based on that service capability and that share." Strong service is driving share gains. Positive read-through for CSX’s domestic intermodal segment, which is benefiting from the Howard Street Tunnel opening and tighter trucking.
• Aluminum moving into the U.S. despite 50% tariff: "Aluminum, even at a 50% tariff, is starting to move into the U.S. again. The demand is so strong." Positive read-through for CSX’s metals segment.
• Forest products / lumber remains a persistent headwind: "The real impact that’s continuing to persist is in forest products and lumber in particular." Attributed to tariffs and "continuing weakness in housing starts." Consistent with CSX’s own forest products headwind commentary.
• Volume outlook for remainder of year "uncertain": "As we look forward into the remainder of the year, I think it’s uncertain." USMCA renewal adds to uncertainty.
• Pricing above rail cost inflation: "That service is also allowing us to continue to price above rail cost inflation." Consistent with CSX’s own pricing strategy of recovering inflation through price.
• Free cash flow running higher: "We’re 44% up in free cash flow in the first quarter of this year. That’s going to continue." Industry-wide FCF acceleration is a positive read-through for CSX’s >60% FCF growth guidance.

CSX Read-Through: The domestic intermodal growth streak and aluminum resilience are positive for CSX’s 2Q26 volume. The forest products headwind and uncertain second-half macro are consistent with CSX’s own risk factors. The FCF acceleration theme is industry-wide and supportive of CSX’s FCF guidance.

7G. CPKC — Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference (June 10, 2026)

Source: CPKC CMO John Brooks and COO Mark Redd at Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference, June 10, 2026

• Volume trend "continues to be positive week over week": "As I sit here in Q2, I would tell you that the volume trend continues to be positive in sort of week over week. We continue to see a little bit of an uptick." Q2 RTMs expected in the "3.5 to 4.5% range."
• Pricing 3–4.5% range maintained: "That 3 to 3 and a half to 4.5% range continues to sort of play out." Disciplined pricing across the industry is a positive read-through for CSX’s own pricing strategy.
• Trucking tightening is a tailwind for the next 18 months: "As I look out over the next 18 months, as I look at what you described and on the trucking piece, to me, there’s, it feels like a little bit of a tailwind." Consistent with CSX’s own truck conversion commentary.
• Automotive demand "strong": "Right now, the demand is strong." CPKC expects "a pretty good run out here the next few weeks to close out the quarter" in automotive. Positive read-through for CSX’s automotive segment, which management flagged as pressured by lower production and plant retooling.
• CSX–CPKC SMX intermodal partnership highlighted: CPKC COO Mark Redd explicitly praised CSX: "If I think about SMX and I think about the work we’ve done with CSX, they have been a prince. I mean, they have met us at the door service design. We put schedules together." CPKC expects "double digit week over week volume gains" from the SMX product in the second half of 2026, which directly implies incremental intermodal revenue for CSX on lanes to Atlanta, New Jersey, and Florida.
• Fuel "continues will be a challenge": Consistent with CSX’s own Q2 fuel headwind commentary.

CSX Read-Through: The CPKC commentary is the most directly actionable peer read-through for CSX’s intermodal segment. CPKC’s expectation of double-digit week-over-week SMX volume gains in 2H 2026 implies incremental intermodal revenue for CSX as the interchange partner on Southeast, New Jersey, and Florida lanes. The strong automotive demand commentary is a mild positive surprise vs. CSX’s own cautious automotive outlook.

Peer Read-Through Summary Table

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: Two open-market sales were filed in early June 2026 — CFO Kevin Boone sold 136,708 shares and Director John Zillmer sold 10,000 shares, both on June 3, 2026. Neither transaction was under a 10b5-1 plan, making these discretionary sales. The CFO’s sale is notable in size (136,708 shares, ~$6.3M at prevailing prices) and occurred after the stock had already rallied ~7% post-Q1 earnings; however, Boone retains 208,622 shares, suggesting continued meaningful alignment. No open-market buys have been filed in the period.

Context: Both sales occurred on the same day (June 3, 2026), approximately six weeks after the Q1 earnings beat and stock rally. The timing — after a significant price appreciation but before the Q2 print — is consistent with profit-taking behavior rather than a negative signal about the upcoming quarter. The CFO’s retention of 208,622 shares (worth ~$10.4M at current prices) and the Director’s retention of 353,714 shares indicate continued meaningful insider alignment. No open-market purchases have been filed in the period, which is not unusual given the stock’s strong performance.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings — Kevin S. Boone (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000119312526259595/xslF345X06/ownership.xml); John J. Zillmer (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000119312526257422/xslF345X06/ownership.xml). Insider Transaction Data (SEC Form 4 Database).

Appendix: Key Valuation Context

Note: EV/EBITDA is the primary valuation metric for Class I railroads. CSX’s current 14.85x NTM EV/EBITDA represents a ~22.6% expansion vs. 12 months ago, driven by both multiple re-rating and estimate revisions. The stock is not cheap heading into the print; a beat is likely needed to sustain the current multiple.

Source: CSX Stock Performance Decomposition Data (NTM consensus multiples, July 21, 2026).

Estimate Revision Momentum (Trailing 12 Months — 2Q26 Operating EPS)

Observation: The 2Q26 EPS estimate was remarkably stable from August 2025 through March 2026 (~$0.485–$0.497), then inflected sharply upward after the Q1 2026 earnings beat (April 22), rising from $0.494 to $0.514 currently (+4.0%). The stock has re-rated in tandem, rising from ~$32.51 (August 2025) to ~$49.91 (July 2026), a +53.5% move over 11 months. The stock’s outperformance vs. estimate revisions confirms that multiple expansion has been the dominant driver of the stock’s appreciation.

Source: CSX Earnings and Estimate Revision Momentum Data; Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance).