| DHI |
Report |
Diluted EPS (FQ3'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.10 vs. cons ~$3.00 |
MEDIUM |
| DHI |
Report |
Home sales gross margin |
BEAT |
pred ~20.1% vs. cons ~19.9% |
MEDIUM |
| DHI |
Report |
Net sales orders (homes) |
MISS |
pred ~21,800 vs. cons ~22,800 |
LOW |
| DHI |
Guide |
FY26 closings / revenue guide |
LOWER |
guide ~85,500–87,000 homes / ~$33.5–34.2B vs. cons ~86,800 / ~$34B (FY26) — third straight top-end nudge down |
MEDIUM |
| DHI |
Guide |
Q4'26 home sales gross margin outlook |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~19.5–20.0% vs. cons ~19.8% (FQ4'26) — construction-cost savings offset by lot-cost/oil input creep |
MEDIUM |
| DHI |
Guide |
Sales incentives (% of revenue) |
LOWER |
guide ~10%+ of revenue, stay elevated vs. cons hope ~10% moderating (FY26 H2) — worse than bulls want given hawkish rates |
MEDIUM |
| DHI |
Guide |
FY26 share repurchases |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$2.5B buyback + ~$500M dividends vs. cons ~$2.5B (FY26); upside risk as stock cheap |
HIGH |
| DHI |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+3.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| DHI |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+2.0% (FADE) |
Setup mirrors last July (stock reset ~13% off highs into print, DHI's habitual beat-and-sandbag; FQ3'25 popped +17%), so a P&L/margin beat plus 'demand holding' commentary likely sparks a relief pop day-1. But out-period math pulls it back: a third consecutive top-end trim to FY26 closings/revenue, flat-to-down ASP with incentives stuck ~10%, and FY27 input-cost (oil/lot) caution give analysts reason to trim out-quarter estimates even after the beat — so the initial gain partially fades rather than compounds. |
LOW |