{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Diluted EPS (FQ3'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.10 vs. cons ~$3.00",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Home sales gross margin",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~20.1% vs. cons ~19.9%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net sales orders (homes)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~21,800 vs. cons ~22,800",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 closings / revenue guide",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~85,500\u201387,000 homes / ~$33.5\u201334.2B vs. cons ~86,800 / ~$34B (FY26) \u2014 third straight top-end nudge down",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q4'26 home sales gross margin outlook",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~19.5\u201320.0% vs. cons ~19.8% (FQ4'26) \u2014 construction-cost savings offset by lot-cost/oil input creep",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Sales incentives (% of revenue)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~10%+ of revenue, stay elevated vs. cons hope ~10% moderating (FY26 H2) \u2014 worse than bulls want given hawkish rates",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 share repurchases",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.5B buyback + ~$500M dividends vs. cons ~$2.5B (FY26); upside risk as stock cheap",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 3.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Setup mirrors last July (stock reset ~13% off highs into print, DHI's habitual beat-and-sandbag; FQ3'25 popped +17%), so a P&L/margin beat plus 'demand holding' commentary likely sparks a relief pop day-1. But out-period math pulls it back: a third consecutive top-end trim to FY26 closings/revenue, flat-to-down ASP with incentives stuck ~10%, and FY27 input-cost (oil/lot) caution give analysts reason to trim out-quarter estimates even after the beat \u2014 so the initial gain partially fades rather than compounds.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}