DHI Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
DHI Report Fiscal Q3 EPS MISS pred ~$2.93 vs. cons $3.00 MEDIUM
DHI Report Q3 Consolidated Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$8.9B vs. cons $8.95B MEDIUM
DHI Report Q3 Home Sales Gross Margin MISS pred ~19.5% vs. cons 19.9% MEDIUM
DHI Guide FY26 Revenue Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$33.5-34.0B vs. cons $34.0B (FY26) MEDIUM
DHI Guide FY26 Homes Closed Guidance LOWER guide ~85,500 vs. cons 86,800 (FY26) MEDIUM
DHI Guide Q4/FY26 Gross Margin Commentary (incentives) LOWER guide ~19.3-19.7% vs. cons 19.8% (Q4 FY26) MEDIUM
DHI Guide FY26 Share Buyback Pace UNCHANGED guide ~$2.5B vs. cons $2.5B (FY26) LOW
DHI Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.5% MEDIUM
DHI Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Rising mortgage rates since the Q2 print (6.55-6.75% vs ~6.3% assumed) skew risk toward further incentive-driven margin erosion; even if Q3 prints roughly in-line, an implicit trim to Q4/FY26 closings and margin guidance (given the 'light on closings' admission last quarter) forces sell-side EPS cuts for FY26 and FY27 that typically play out over the following days as models get updated, extending the initial negative reaction rather than reversing it. MEDIUM