{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Fiscal Q3 EPS",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.93 vs. cons $3.00",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 Consolidated Revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$8.9B vs. cons $8.95B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 Home Sales Gross Margin",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~19.5% vs. cons 19.9%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Revenue Guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$33.5-34.0B vs. cons $34.0B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Homes Closed Guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~85,500 vs. cons 86,800 (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q4/FY26 Gross Margin Commentary (incentives)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~19.3-19.7% vs. cons 19.8% (Q4 FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Share Buyback Pace",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.5B vs. cons $2.5B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Rising mortgage rates since the Q2 print (6.55-6.75% vs ~6.3% assumed) skew risk toward further incentive-driven margin erosion; even if Q3 prints roughly in-line, an implicit trim to Q4/FY26 closings and margin guidance (given the 'light on closings' admission last quarter) forces sell-side EPS cuts for FY26 and FY27 that typically play out over the following days as models get updated, extending the initial negative reaction rather than reversing it.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}