{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.12 vs. cons $3.04",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Home-sales gross margin",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~19.9% vs. cons 19.9%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net sales orders",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~24,800 homes vs. cons 25,700 homes",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 consolidated revenue guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$33.75B vs. cons $34.00B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 homebuilding closings guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~86,500 homes vs. cons 86,750 homes (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 operating cash-flow guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.00B vs. cons $3.00B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 share-repurchase guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.50B vs. cons $2.50B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest EPS beat and in-line ~19.9% gross margin are unlikely to offset a ~900-home order miss and a lower FY26 revenue/closing midpoint. The reduced full-year guide implies a softer out-period closing and absorption setup, pulling FY26/FY27 volume and EPS estimates lower even if the reported quarter clears consensus.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}