| DOW |
Report |
Operating EBITDA |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.30B vs. cons ~$2.2B |
MEDIUM |
| DOW |
Report |
Operating EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.34 vs. cons ~$1.26 |
MEDIUM |
| DOW |
Report |
Net sales |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$12.0B vs. cons ~$11.95B |
MEDIUM |
| DOW |
Guide |
Q3'26 Operating EBITDA guide |
BETTER |
guide ~$2.1B vs. cons ~$1.85B (Q3'26) |
MEDIUM |
| DOW |
Guide |
May PE price-increase realization (integrated margin) |
BETTER |
guide ~$0.35/lb margin uplift realized vs. cons ~$0.26/lb April-only baked into $2B guide (Q2/Q3'26) |
MEDIUM |
| DOW |
Guide |
Middle East disruption duration commentary |
BETTER |
guide 6-18mo runway reaffirmed/extended vs. cons ~6mo normalization assumed (H2'26-2027) |
LOW |
| DOW |
Guide |
Sadara restructuring midyear update |
UNKNOWN |
update pending vs. ~$1.4B obligation cap / ~$100M/yr cash through 2038 |
LOW |
| DOW |
Guide |
2026 self-help benefits pacing |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1.1B FY26 (incl. ~$400M H2 ramp) vs. cons ~$1.1B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| DOW |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.5% |
— |
LOW |
| DOW |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.5% (FADE) |
The blowout EBITDA/EPS beat is essentially pre-announced (mgmt's $2B guide + known April/May PE hikes), so a modest day-1 pop on a strong Q3 guide amid fresh Hormuz re-escalation gives way to fade: out-period math is the problem — the disruption-driven spike is transient (mgmt itself frames 6-18mo, i.e., peak-then-normalize), 2027 estimates get capped/cut as the cost-curve steepening is temporary, and the stock trades as an Iran-sentiment proxy the market distrusts on fundamentals (II&I/PM&C still loss-making). Any détente headline or profit-taking reverses the geopolitical premium, pulling residual negative over the week. |
LOW |