{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Operating EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.30B vs. cons ~$2.2B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Operating EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.34 vs. cons ~$1.26",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net sales",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$12.0B vs. cons ~$11.95B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q3'26 Operating EBITDA guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.1B vs. cons ~$1.85B (Q3'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "May PE price-increase realization (integrated margin)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$0.35/lb margin uplift realized vs. cons ~$0.26/lb April-only baked into $2B guide (Q2/Q3'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Middle East disruption duration commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide 6-18mo runway reaffirmed/extended vs. cons ~6mo normalization assumed (H2'26-2027)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Sadara restructuring midyear update",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "update pending vs. ~$1.4B obligation cap / ~$100M/yr cash through 2038",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2026 self-help benefits pacing",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.1B FY26 (incl. ~$400M H2 ramp) vs. cons ~$1.1B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "The blowout EBITDA/EPS beat is essentially pre-announced (mgmt's $2B guide + known April/May PE hikes), so a modest day-1 pop on a strong Q3 guide amid fresh Hormuz re-escalation gives way to fade: out-period math is the problem \u2014 the disruption-driven spike is transient (mgmt itself frames 6-18mo, i.e., peak-then-normalize), 2027 estimates get capped/cut as the cost-curve steepening is temporary, and the stock trades as an Iran-sentiment proxy the market distrusts on fundamentals (II&I/PM&C still loss-making). Any d\u00e9tente headline or profit-taking reverses the geopolitical premium, pulling residual negative over the week.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}