| DOW |
Report |
Net Sales (Revenue) |
BEAT |
pred ~$12.3B vs. cons $12.1B |
MEDIUM |
| DOW |
Report |
Operating EBITDA |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.4B vs. cons $2.2B |
MEDIUM |
| DOW |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.45 vs. cons $1.25 |
MEDIUM |
| DOW |
Guide |
Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$12.6B vs. cons $12.3B (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| DOW |
Guide |
Q3 2026 Operating EBITDA Guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$2.5B vs. cons $2.3B (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| DOW |
Guide |
Transform to Outperform H2 self-help EBITDA ramp |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$400M vs. prior guide $400M (H2 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| DOW |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+3.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| DOW |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+1.0% (FADE) |
Consensus EPS/revenue have already been revised up 13-24% over the past 30-60 days and the stock rallied ~16% into the print purely on Iran-escalation headlines, so a beat-and-raise is largely pre-priced. A likely Q3 guide raise (extending the pricing/disruption window) should drive an initial pop, but the earnings quality is a geopolitical windfall rather than structural margin repair (negative S&P/Moody's outlooks, continuing GAAP losses, unresolved Sadara/Aramco liability, and structurally weak B&C/auto end-markets). As sell-side digests the beat, out-period (2027+) estimates are likely to stay conservative or even get trimmed on mean-reversion/ceasefire risk even as near-term numbers rise, and any hint of Strait-of-Hormuz de-escalation this week could quickly unwind the trade — producing fade over the following days rather than follow-through. |
LOW |