Dow Inc. (DOW) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 2026 is constructive — DOW guided to ~$2.2B Operating EBITDA (above prior guidance and consensus), driven by conflict-related polyethylene pricing tailwinds and II&I upside, but the stock has sold off sharply since earnings as the market questions whether pricing momentum is durable. The biggest swing factor is whether the June $0.20/lb polyethylene price increase — not embedded in guidance — was realized.

Heading into Q2 2026 results, the bar is set at approximately $2.20B in Operating EBITDA — a figure management itself raised at the Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference on June 9, roughly 10% above the original $2.0B guide and above consensus at the time. The upside was driven by stronger-than-expected polyethylene pricing (April settled at +$0.30/lb vs. consultant forecasts of +$0.20/lb) and tightness in polyols and MDI within the Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment. Management's tone has been notably more confident since the Q1 print, with CFO Jeffrey Tate explicitly framing a multi-year EBITDA bridge of $3.3B (2025 base) + $3B self-help + $1B Alberta = $7B+ — a structural bull case independent of macro recovery. Estimate revisions have moved sharply higher since the April 23 earnings call, with Q2 2026 Operating EBITDA consensus rising from ~$2.12B to ~$2.20B, tracking management's raised guidance. The stock, however, has dramatically underperformed — down ~19% since last earnings vs. XLB flat and SPY +5.5% — as investors weigh the sustainability of conflict-driven pricing against the ongoing loss environment and dividend cut overhang. The key wildcard is the June $0.20/lb polyethylene price increase: management confirmed it was announced and supported by industry dynamics but explicitly excluded it from guidance, meaning any realization represents pure upside to the $2.2B guide.

• Bar: Consensus Operating EBITDA of ~$2.20B for Q2 2026 is a moderate-to-high bar — it reflects management's own raised guidance and is well above the trough levels of recent quarters ($703M in Q2 2025, $741M in Q4 2025). The bar is achievable if polyethylene pricing held through June, but leaves little room for demand softness or conflict resolution.
• Guidance/Tone: Management's posture has shifted materially more confident since Q1 earnings. At the June 9 Wells Fargo conference, CFO Tate raised Q2 EBITDA guidance to ~$2.2B, announced a June $0.20/lb PE price increase (not in guidance), and articulated a long-term self-help EBITDA bridge. The 2025 cost savings program is expected to be materially complete by end of Q2, and Transform to Outperform is ramping sharply in H2 2026.
• Estimate Trajectory: Q2 2026 Operating EBITDA estimates rose from ~$2.12B (as of April 28, 2026) to ~$2.20B currently, tracking management's raised guidance. FY 2026 estimates moved from ~$6.92B to ~$6.42B — a notable downward revision — suggesting the market is skeptical that H2 pricing holds at Q2 levels. This divergence between Q2 (tracking guidance) and FY (below prior consensus) is the key tension.
• Stock Setup: DOW has fallen ~19% since the April 23 earnings date, dramatically underperforming XLB (-2%) and SPY (+5.5%). The stock is trading near multi-year lows, implying the market is pricing in a miss or at minimum a very cautious H2 outlook. At current levels, the stock is not pricing in a beat — any positive surprise on pricing or cost savings could drive a meaningful re-rating.
• Wildcard: The June $0.20/lb polyethylene price increase. Management confirmed it was announced and supported by tight supply and healthy order books, but explicitly excluded it from the $2.2B guide. If realized, it represents material upside to the print. Conversely, any signal that pricing has peaked or that demand destruction is emerging would be a significant negative.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus Operating EBITDA of ~$2.20B represents a ~3× sequential improvement from Q2 2025 and is above management's original $2.0B guide — a high bar that requires pricing momentum to have held through June. Operating EPS is the bigger swing factor given the loss environment; any upside on PE pricing flows directly to the bottom line.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot

Sources: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data. P&SP = Packaging & Specialty Plastics; II&I = Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure; PM&C = Performance Materials & Coatings. Q2 2026 consensus as of July 22, 2026. Operating EBITDA guidance of ~$2.2B raised at Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference, June 9, 2026.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

Top 2 KPIs: Operating EBITDA and Operating EPS (Diluted)

Pattern: DOW has beaten Operating EBITDA consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters, with the two misses (Q2 2024 and Q2 2025) both occurring in the seasonally important Q2 period — a cautionary note heading into this print. However, the magnitude of recent beats has been large (11–14%), suggesting management guides conservatively. The Q2 2025 miss was driven by a sharp deterioration in integrated margins; the current setup is the inverse, with conflict-driven pricing providing a strong tailwind.

Source: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Management raised Q2 EBITDA guidance ~10% above the original $2.0B guide at the June 9 Wells Fargo conference, driven by stronger polyethylene pricing and II&I upside. Tone has shifted from cautious to constructively confident, with the June $0.20/lb PE price increase representing additional upside not embedded in guidance.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Q2 2026 estimates have moved up ~4% since the Q1 earnings print, tracking management's raised guidance — a healthy alignment. However, FY 2026 estimates have moved down ~7% from the post-Q1 baseline, signaling the market is skeptical that H2 pricing holds at Q2 levels. This divergence is the key tension: if DOW can demonstrate pricing durability into Q3, FY estimates have significant upside.

The Q2 estimate revision story is clean: consensus has moved up ~4% on EBITDA and ~7% on EPS since the post-Q1 baseline, tracking management's raised guidance. The FY 2026 story is more cautious — EBITDA estimates are down ~7% and EPS down ~17% from the post-Q1 baseline, reflecting market skepticism that H2 pricing holds at Q2 conflict-driven levels. The gap between Q2 (tracking guidance) and FY (below prior consensus) implies the market is pricing in a meaningful H2 pricing fade. If DOW can demonstrate on the call that pricing momentum is durable into Q3, FY estimates have significant upside.

Source: Visible Alpha consensus data. Post-Q1 baseline = consensus as of April 28, 2026 (approximately 5 trading days after April 23 earnings).

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: DOW has dramatically underperformed since Q1 earnings — down ~19% vs. XLB -2% and SPY +5.5% — driven by multiple compression as the market questions the durability of conflict-driven pricing. The stock is not pricing in a beat; any positive surprise on pricing or H2 guidance could drive a sharp re-rating from deeply depressed levels.

DOW vs. XLB (Materials ETF) vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at April 23, 2026 (Q1 2026 Earnings Date). Source: Yahoo Finance.

Performance Summary (April 23 – July 22, 2026):

Key Events Since Q1 Earnings:

• Apr 23, 2026: Q1 2026 earnings beat on EBITDA and EPS; stock declined on the day as investors questioned sustainability of conflict-driven pricing. Stock opened the post-earnings period at $38.53.
• May 5–8, 2026: Sharp sell-off from ~$40.80 to ~$36.87 as market reassessed conflict duration and pricing durability; DOW underperformed XLB materially.
• Jun 9, 2026: Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference — CFO Tate raised Q2 EBITDA guidance to ~$2.2B and announced June $0.20/lb PE price increase. Stock at $33.22, failed to rally on the guidance raise.
• Jun 16, 2026: Huntsman-Olin merger announced — read-through for MDI/polyurethanes industry consolidation; modest positive for DOW's II&I segment pricing.
• Jun 24–Jul 1, 2026: Accelerated sell-off from ~$29.38 to $27.02 — stock hit multi-year lows as market priced in H2 pricing fade and broader macro concerns.
• Jul 1, 2026: Karen Carter officially assumes CEO role; Jim Fitterling transitions to Executive Chair.
• Jul 6–Jul 10, 2026: Modest recovery from $27.02 to $29.03 on short-covering ahead of earnings; 8-K filed registering 5.41M shares for stock incentive plan.
• Jul 22, 2026: Stock at $31.25 (post-market $31.37), up ~15% from July lows but still down ~19% from Q1 earnings date. Sector ETF (XLB) used as it best captures DOW's materials/chemicals sub-sector exposure.

Source: Yahoo Finance stock price data.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the Wells Fargo guidance raise to ~$2.2B EBITDA on June 9, confirming that conflict-driven pricing tailwinds are real and above initial expectations. The CEO transition to Karen Carter on July 1 adds a new variable — this will be her first earnings call, and the market will be listening closely for any tone shift on strategy or capital allocation.

• Jun 9, 2026 — Q2 EBITDA Guidance Raised to ~$2.2B at Wells Fargo Conference (Most Important): CFO Jeffrey Tate raised Q2 2026 EBITDA guidance to ~$2.2B, approximately 10% above the original $2.0B guide and above consensus. Driven by stronger polyethylene pricing (April +$0.30/lb vs. $0.20 consultant forecast) and polyols/MDI tightness in II&I. A June $0.20/lb PE price increase was announced but not embedded in guidance — representing additional upside. April ACC data showed 94.4% operating rates and inventories down 23M lbs. Implication: Sets a high but achievable bar; June price realization is the key swing factor for the print.
• Jul 1, 2026 — Karen Carter Assumes CEO Role: Karen Carter officially became CEO effective July 1, 2026, with Jim Fitterling transitioning to Executive Chair. Carter has spent her entire career at Dow and joined the Board of Directors. Implication: This will be Carter's first earnings call as CEO. The market will listen for any tone shift on capital allocation priorities (dividend, deleveraging, Alberta), Transform to Outperform execution, and Sadara restructuring update.
• Jul 6, 2026 — CEO Compensation Package Disclosed (8-K/A): Dow filed an 8-K/A detailing Karen Carter's enhanced compensation package as incoming CEO. Implication: Routine disclosure; no strategic read-through, but confirms the succession is fully formalized.
• Jul 10, 2026 — 5.41M Shares Registered for Stock Incentive Plan (8-K): Dow registered 5.41 million shares for stock incentive plan awards. Implication: Modest dilution; consistent with ongoing equity compensation programs. Not a material negative.
• Jun 16, 2026 — Huntsman-Olin Merger Announced (Peer Read-Through): Huntsman and Olin announced a merger creating a vertically integrated MDI producer by 2031, with $400M+ in identified synergies. Industry described as in 'challenging times' and a 'trough.' Implication: Positive read-through for DOW's II&I segment — MDI industry consolidation supports pricing discipline. Also confirms the industry is still in a trough, validating DOW's self-help narrative.
• May 1–Jun 9, 2026 — Peer Q1 Earnings Calls (WLK, LYB, HUN, EMN, CE): All major chemical peers reported Q1 2026 results with strong forward commentary on Q2 2026 polyethylene, PVC, MDI, and polyols pricing driven by Middle East supply disruptions. WLK running at full rates; LYB guiding to 90% utilization and mid-cycle PE margins in Q2; HUN seeing MDI at 90% global capacity utilization. Implication: Broad-based peer confirmation that Q2 2026 is a strong pricing environment for DOW's core products. See Peer Commentaries section for detail.
• Apr 23, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings Beat; Stock Declined: DOW beat Q1 EBITDA ($873M vs. $784M consensus, +11%) and EPS (-$0.136 vs. -$0.296 consensus). Stock declined on the day as investors questioned sustainability of conflict-driven pricing. Turnaround on U.S. Gulf Coast cracker completed. Nova Chemicals cash payment received in March 2026. Implication: The market's skepticism on pricing durability is the central debate heading into Q2 results.
• Ongoing — Middle East Conflict / Strait of Hormuz: The Strait of Hormuz closure (beginning late February 2026) has disrupted an estimated 10–15% of global polyethylene supply and ~5% of global PVC supply (per WLK). Management estimates roughly half of global polyethylene supply is offline, constrained, or impacted. Even with conflict resolution, management and peers estimate several quarters for supply chains to normalize. Implication: The conflict is the single largest driver of DOW's near-term earnings recovery. Any ceasefire announcement or Strait reopening would be a significant negative catalyst.
• Ongoing — Transform to Outperform Execution: Assessments begun at ~25% of large sites; first site identified ~$80M run-rate EBITDA improvement (well above initial projections). Senior leadership restructuring delivered ~20% headcount/cost reduction. Bury UK Siloxanes unit shutdown completed ahead of schedule. Implication: Early T2O results are tracking above plan — a positive signal for the $500M 2026 target and $2B+ multi-year program.

7. Peer Commentaries — Q2 2026 Read-Throughs

Key Takeaway: All major chemical peers reporting Q1 2026 results provided strong forward commentary on Q2 2026 conditions directly relevant to DOW's core product lines. The read-through is broadly positive: polyethylene running at full rates, MDI at near-capacity globally, polyols/PO tightness, and PVC pricing momentum — all validating DOW's $2.2B Q2 EBITDA guide. The key risk flagged by peers is H2 demand sustainability as inflationary pressures build.

Note: Only commentary from Q1 2026 earnings calls (reported April–May 2026) and post-Q1 conferences (through July 2026) is included below, as these reflect forward-looking views on Q2 2026 — the current reporting quarter for DOW.

Westlake Chemical (WLK) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 5, 2026)

Relevance to DOW: WLK is a direct polyethylene and PVC peer with a similar North American gas-based feedstock advantage. WLK's commentary on PE pricing, operating rates, and demand is the closest read-through for DOW's Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment.

• Polyethylene running at full rates: "In the polyethylene business, we're running full rates, as you would guess, demand levels seem to be very good. And even though we've seen significant price increases, operating rates are operating at full rates." WLK achieved a $0.30/lb increase in April and was pushing for additional increases in May, noting current prices are still below 2021 peak levels. DOW Read-Through: Directly validates DOW's April pricing capture and supports the June $0.20/lb increase announcement.
• Supply disruption magnitude: "Industry consultants estimate that this conflict has disrupted approximately 10% to 15% of global polyethylene supply and approximately 5% of global PVC resin supply." Customers are sourcing more material from North America, supporting higher PEM sales volume and improved plant operating rates. DOW Read-Through: Confirms the supply shock is real and broad-based, not DOW-specific.
• Q2 2026 free cash flow positive: "I do expect the second quarter to generate free cash flow as a result." WLK's $600M EBITDA uplift plan for 2026 remains on track. DOW Read-Through: Positive for DOW's FCF build narrative in H2 2026.
• HIP segment headwind (PVC resin cost lag): WLK flagged a 1–2 month lag between PVC resin price increases and HIP segment realization, creating a near-term margin headwind in Q2. Full benefit expected in Q3. DOW Read-Through: Limited direct read-through for DOW (DOW does not have a HIP-equivalent segment), but confirms PVC pricing momentum is real.
• Supply disruption durability: "While the conflict in the Middle East remains fluid and we hope for a peaceful resolution, we expect the supply disruptions could persist throughout 2026." DOW Read-Through: Supports DOW management's view that pricing tailwinds persist for several quarters even after conflict resolution.

LyondellBasell (LYB) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 1, 2026)

Relevance to DOW: LYB is the closest global polyethylene and polypropylene peer. LYB's O&P-Americas segment is the most direct read-through for DOW's P&SP segment. LYB's I&D segment (oxyfuels, acetyls, PO) is relevant to DOW's II&I segment.

• PE order books 20% above pre-war averages: "Our order books are strong with April orders for polyethylene 20% above pre-war averages." LYB announced a cumulative $0.50/lb PE price increase across April and May, and expects to run at 90% utilization in O&P-Americas in Q2. DOW Read-Through: Strongly validates DOW's Q2 PE pricing capture and volume outlook. LYB's 90% utilization target aligns with DOW's Americas cracker fleet running at very high rates.
• Mid-cycle PE margins expected in Q2: "Mid-cycle margins will be there in the second quarter. So if you go back and look at 2021 mid-cycle margins for PE, yes, I think we're going to be in a very similar situation." LYB disagrees with consultants forecasting sharp H2 price erosion, noting current pricing is still $0.10–0.15/lb below 2021 peak. DOW Read-Through: Directly supports DOW's $2.2B Q2 EBITDA guide and the bull case for pricing durability. If LYB is right on mid-cycle margins, DOW's FY estimates have significant upside.
• Supply disruption is multi-quarter, not multi-month: "This disruption is not to be measured in quarters. It's probably going to be multiple quarters, definitely not months." Physical damage and rerouting logistics expected to take 9–12 months to stabilize. Some outages could become permanent, accelerating rationalization. DOW Read-Through: The most bullish read-through for DOW's H2 2026 and 2027 outlook. If LYB's view is correct, the market's skepticism on pricing durability is misplaced.
• Polypropylene is the 'sleeping giant': "I think the sleeping giant will be polypropylene as this continues to progress." PP price is ~$0.60/lb below 2021 levels; 70%+ of global PP market impacted by Middle East issues. LYB sees 15–20% operating rate improvement opportunity in PP. DOW Read-Through: Modest read-through for DOW's P&SP segment (DOW has PP exposure but PE is the primary driver).
• PO/TBA Bayport restart headwind: LYB's Bayport PO/TBA asset expected to restart toward end of Q2, with ~$25M/week earnings impact while down. This is a headwind for LYB's I&D segment in Q2. DOW Read-Through: Positive for DOW's II&I segment — LYB's PO outage tightens the global polyols/PO market, supporting DOW's polyols pricing upside flagged at the Wells Fargo conference.

Huntsman Corporation (HUN) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 1, 2026)

Relevance to DOW: HUN is the most direct read-through for DOW's Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment, specifically MDI and polyurethanes. HUN's Polyurethanes division is the global MDI market leader.

• MDI at near-capacity globally: "If you kind of think that the industry is operating in the low to mid-80s, that would say that we're kind of pushing the mid- to upper 80s at 90% capacity utilization globally." HUN's U.S. MDI operation is "mostly sold out" and Chinese operation is "completely sold out." At 90% capacity, the MDI industry "starts to strain." DOW Read-Through: Directly validates DOW's II&I upside flagged at the Wells Fargo conference. Tight MDI markets support pricing and margin expansion for DOW's polyurethanes business.
• Pricing exceeding raw material increases: "We're projecting in the second quarter that we'll take in well in excess of around $100 million of raw material costs, and we expect to offset that and get prices higher than that." HUN expects to exit Q2 ahead of raw material costs for Q3. DOW Read-Through: Positive for DOW's II&I margin expansion in Q2. If HUN is achieving price above raw material cost increases, DOW should be as well given its integrated position.
• Demand driven by 3 factors — but H2 sustainability is the key risk: HUN attributed stronger Q2 demand to: (1) seasonality as building season resumes, (2) customers buying ahead of price increases, and (3) supply disruptions. However, management flagged: "I struggle to see how inflationary pressures, particularly in areas reliant on imported energy like much of Asia and Europe, will not see an inevitable downward pressure later in the year." DOW Read-Through: The most important risk flag from peers. HUN's concern about H2 demand destruction from inflation is the bear case for DOW's FY 2026 estimates.
• Pre-buying is limited (2–3 days of MDI inventory): "I would say right now, we're seeing low number of days of inventory that is prebuying at this point... you're probably talking about 2, 3 days of [prebuying] on MDI." HUN is actively discouraging excessive pre-buying. DOW Read-Through: Positive signal — Q2 demand is not artificially inflated by large pre-buying. Demand appears genuine, reducing the risk of a sharp Q3 volume correction.
• Strait of Hormuz reopening would take 30–45 days to normalize: "You're probably looking at 30 to 45 days would be my assumption on that... there's going to be a bottleneck of shipping." DOW Read-Through: Even a near-term conflict resolution would not immediately reverse pricing tailwinds, consistent with DOW management's view.

Eastman Chemical (EMN) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 1, 2026) & Deutsche Bank Conference (Jun 3, 2026)

Relevance to DOW: EMN is a specialty chemicals peer with exposure to similar end markets (packaging, automotive, building & construction, consumer). EMN's Chemical Intermediates segment (olefins, acetyls) provides a read-through for DOW's P&SP and II&I segments. EMN's June 3 Deutsche Bank conference commentary is particularly relevant as it reflects conditions closer to DOW's Q2 reporting period.

• Q2 tracking guidance; June is the wildcard: At the June 3 Deutsche Bank conference, EMN CEO Mark Costa stated: "I would say where I sit today, you could see potentially we're in that zone, but June is an extremely important month." Chemical Intermediates earnings "probably going to be a bit better than $50 million" vs. original estimate. DOW Read-Through: June is also the peak demand month for DOW (management noted June is a disproportionate share of Q2 volume). EMN's tracking-to-guidance commentary is a positive read-through.
• Chemical Intermediates margins significantly above normalized: "Margins right now are certainly higher than what I would call normalized... not going back to where we were last year, somewhere in the middle." EMN has "a lot more volume to sell this year than last year" due to large cracker turnarounds in 2025. DOW Read-Through: Validates the broad-based margin expansion environment for North American chemical producers in Q2 2026.
• No demand destruction yet, but H2 is the concern: "Not seeing any signs yet of demand destruction associated with what's going on with the Gulf and the impact it's having on prices." However, "everyone is worried about inflation impact on consumer demand in the back half of the year." Order books "really strong" for April and May, but "June is a wildcard." DOW Read-Through: Consistent with DOW's narrative — Q2 is strong, H2 is the debate. The June wildcard is directly relevant to DOW's June price increase realization.
• Naphtha shortage is structural and long-lasting: "Naphtha and methanol... 15%, 20% of the naphtha for the world comes out of the Gulf, it's not coming out. This naphtha situation is going to drag on for a long time, things are going to stay tight." North American chemical assets described as "winners in this long term." DOW Read-Through: Strongly supports DOW's structural cost advantage narrative. DOW's gas-based feedstock position in the Americas is a durable competitive advantage vs. naphtha-dependent European and Asian producers.
• $500M of price increases implemented: EMN initiated $500M of price increases across its portfolio. Specialty price increases of mid-single digits Q1 to Q2; Chemical Intermediates in "high teens or approaching 20%" sequentially. DOW Read-Through: Confirms the broad-based pricing environment. DOW's larger scale and more commodity-exposed portfolio should see even larger absolute pricing benefits.

Celanese (CE) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 6, 2026)

Relevance to DOW: CE's acetyl chain (acetic acid, VAM, vinyl emulsions) is relevant to DOW's II&I segment. CE's Engineered Materials segment provides a read-through for specialty polymer demand trends.

• Acetyl chain lift weighted to Western Hemisphere: "The lift here from Q1 to Q2 is definitely weighted heavier towards the Western Hemisphere as well." Improvement driven by vinyls chain (VAM, vinyl emulsions, redispersible powder). "Vinyls chemistry has a nice advantage in a higher oil environment over competing systems." DOW Read-Through: Positive for DOW's II&I segment, which has exposure to similar vinyl/polyurethane chemistry value chains.
• April was likely the pricing high watermark: "I actually think where we were in April was probably the higher watermark just as we look at the cadence today." Chinese spot acetic pricing has moderated from early April levels. CE does not believe global acetyl prices will end Q2 at a higher level than the average. DOW Read-Through: A cautionary note — if April was the peak for acetyls, it may signal that some chemical pricing has already peaked. However, DOW's primary exposure is polyethylene (not acetyls), where the supply disruption is more severe.
• H2 assumes supply chains begin to unwind by end of Q2: "We do believe the right one to assume in the second half is one where supply chains start to unwind here by the end of the quarter here in Q2, and you see that kind of moderate on where volumes and margins are in the second half." CE is more conservative than LYB on supply chain normalization timeline. DOW Read-Through: The most bearish peer read-through for DOW's H2 2026. If CE's assumption is correct, DOW's FY 2026 estimates (already down ~7% from post-Q1 baseline) may still be too high.
• Demand destruction concern is real: "We're very much concerned about [potential demand disruption] and we're watching very closely." CE factors this into H2 scenarios. DOW Read-Through: Validates the bear case for DOW's H2 2026 — the key debate between bulls (pricing durable, self-help accelerating) and bears (pricing fades, demand destruction).

Huntsman-Olin Merger Call (Jun 16, 2026) — Industry Structure Read-Through

Relevance to DOW: The Huntsman-Olin merger creates a vertically integrated MDI producer by 2031, with $400M+ in synergies. The call's commentary on industry conditions is directly relevant to DOW's II&I segment.

• Industry in 'challenging times' and a 'trough': Peter Huntsman: "I wish it would have happened a year ago had we been in these challenging times that we're in today as an industry." Olin CEO Ken Lane: "We don't operate our assets fully loaded today and the trough that we're in." DOW Read-Through: Confirms the industry is still in a trough despite Q2 pricing tailwinds — validating DOW's self-help narrative and the long runway for recovery.
• MDI industry consolidation is a structural positive: The combined Olin-Huntsman entity will create a vertically integrated U.S. MDI producer starting in 2031, with $400M+ in synergies. "Cost, position, reliability and integration matters more than ever." DOW Read-Through: Positive for DOW's II&I segment long-term — MDI industry consolidation reduces competitive intensity and supports pricing discipline. DOW's integrated polyurethanes position benefits from a more rational competitive landscape.

Peer Read-Through Summary Table