Report Date: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 — Release 6:30 a.m. ET, Call 8:30 a.m. ET
| Q2 2026 Guidance (given in April) | Street Consensus | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.680B–$1.710B (+10.3% reported at midpoint) | ~$1.70B |
| Adjusted EPS | $2.15–$2.25 | ~$2.21 |
| FY26 Revenue | $6.685B–$6.805B | — |
| FY26 Adjusted EPS | $8.34–$8.74 | ~$8.56–$8.57 |
Analysts expect the company to post earnings of $2.21 per share and revenue of $1.6962 billion for the quarter, while Equifax has set its Q2 2026 guidance at $2.150-$2.250 EPS and its FY guidance at $8.340-$8.740 EPS. Equifax has a strong beat history: it has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the four preceding quarters, with an average surprise of 5.6%, and last quarter it was expected to post $1.69 per share when it actually produced $1.86, a surprise of +10.06%. That said, going into this print, the Most Accurate Estimate is running below the Zacks Consensus, resulting in a negative Earnings ESP of -0.33% — a mildly cautious signal from the analyst community heading into the print.
The stock has been volatile in the run-up: after topping out near $198 in mid-April on the Q1 beat, EFX sold off sharply — Q1 revenue grew 14.3% y/y, 2% above expectations and $37M above prior guidance, yet the stock fell 13.7% after the earnings release as management held full-year guidance instead of raising it. Shares subsequently touched a 52-week low near $156 in June before rebounding to the $175-$180 area heading into this report, aided by the Círculo de Crédito deal announcement.
Equifax's Q1 2026 print (reported April 21) was strong on the surface — revenue of $1.649B (+14% reported, +13% local currency), EPS of $1.86 (+22%), and EBITDA margin ex-FICO up 80bps — but management explicitly did not raise full-year guidance despite beating by $37M, citing the Iran conflict-driven spike in interest rates that hit mortgage activity in the back half of Q1. Management noted mortgage strength was concentrated in January/February before rates rose, and that current mortgage run-rates were tracking slightly below the February framework. This is the central tension investors will be watching for in Q2: did the softer mortgage backdrop from March persist and worsen, or did it stabilize?
Key Q2 guidance framework set in April: - Total revenue growth ~9.4% local currency at the midpoint - Diversified Markets revenue down sequentially vs. Q1 due to a tough EWS Government comp (last year's SSA contract activated in April 2025) - U.S. mortgage revenue up over 20% (high-single-digit ex-FICO royalties) - EBITDA margin ~32.2% reported / 34.3%-34.7% ex-FICO (+80bps ex-FICO) - USIS Diversified Markets expected up mid-single digits (rebounding from Q1's soft 3%)
Mortgage remains Equifax's single largest earnings lever, and the rate backdrop has stayed unfriendly through Q2 and into Q3. The benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage climbed to 6.55% as of mid-July, the highest level in nearly a year, versus 6.75% a year earlier. Rates have been mostly rising this year as the war with Iran has driven crude oil prices sharply higher, stoking hotter-inflation expectations and pushing bond yields up relative to pre-conflict levels. Mortgage applications fell 2.7% week-over-week, driven mainly by a 7% drop in purchase applications, and the median existing home price hit an all-time high of $440,600 in June while pending home sales fell more than 5% — a combination that continues to squeeze affordability-driven origination volumes.
Forward-looking forecasts suggest little near-term relief: Fannie Mae's July forecast still expects the 30-year rate to hold at 6.4% through year-end 2026, dropping only modestly to 6.3% in early 2027, while one industry economist noted "mortgage rates are essentially tied to the outcome of the Iran conflict at this point," with rates likely range-bound in the 6-7% band if the conflict persists. This matters directly for EFX guidance: management's framework assumed mortgage originations down low-single-digits for the year, and any further deterioration from elevated rates raises risk to the "mortgage revenue up 20%+" full-year target reiterated in April.
The silver lining Equifax highlighted on the Q1 call: a large and growing pool of borrowers sitting on higher-rate mortgages (over 15 million originated since 2022 with rates above 5%, ~9.5 million above 6.5%) represents pent-up refinance demand whenever rates do ease — a potential future catalyst, not a Q2 one.
a) EWS Government — tough comp, big pipeline. Management flagged that Q2 EWS Government revenue would be roughly flat sequentially against last year's SSA contract win, and that the larger OBBBA (Medicaid/SNAP work-requirement) opportunity is expected to ramp mainly in 2027, not 2026. Watch for updates on pipeline conversion (previously described as up ~2x y/y) and any incremental state contract wins.
b) USIS Diversified Markets rebound. Q1's soft 3% growth (B2B batch timing issues) is guided to reaccelerate to mid-single digits in Q2. Confirmation of this recovery — and commentary on whether the March/April softening in auto and banking activity persisted — will be a focal point.
c) VantageScore / FHFA catalyst. Equifax cut Vantage mortgage pricing from $4.50 to $1 and continues to await FHFA activation of VantageScore for GSE originations. Management has quantified a ~$35 million annual EBITDA upside from full conversion at current mortgage volumes (100% margin on Vantage vs. 0% margin on pass-through FICO royalties) — none of which is baked into guidance. Any signal on timing here is a real share-price catalyst, as some analysts have viewed the $1 pricing move as mainly a marketing action while sector-wide revenue/EPS/FCF growth expectations remain intact.
d) AI-driven margin expansion. Q1 showed EBITDA margin ex-FICO up 80bps, and FY guidance calls for +75bps (above the 50bps long-term framework), driven by operating leverage, new-product mix, and "AI for EFX Operations" productivity in call centers, paper processing, and coding. Investors should listen for evidence this is sustaining into Q2/Q3 rather than being a one-quarter mortgage-flow-through artifact.
e) Capital deployment — Círculo de Crédito. On July 7, Equifax announced a definitive agreement to acquire Círculo de Crédito, the fastest-growing credit bureau in Mexico, for an enterprise value of $750 million — its 17th bolt-on acquisition in the past six years, totaling nearly $5 billion. The target generated $134 million of revenue for the LTM ended June 30, 2026 (+31% y/y) with $62 million of adjusted EBITDA, and serves 1,700+ customers with a database of 2 billion tradelines covering 80 million identities, and is expected to be accretive to adjusted EPS in the first full year after closing. Expect management to address deal financing, timing, and how it fits within the ~$1.5B of 2026 capital capacity previously earmarked for M&A and shareholder returns.
f) Employer Services / WOTC drag. Employer Services revenue is expected to decline slightly in 2026 given the lapsed Work Opportunity Tax Credit; watch for any legislative update, though historically these credits have been renewed retroactively.
Sentiment is mixed-to-constructive but has cooled since Q1. UBS reiterated Buy with a $220 target (July 8), Needham reaffirmed Buy at $265 (July 7), Weiss upgraded to Hold, Goldman Sachs held Neutral at $173, Wells Fargo cut its target from $230 to $220 while keeping Overweight, and the stock carries 13 Buy vs. 6 Hold ratings among covering analysts. More recently, Clear Street lowered its price target to $195 from $205 (July 13), while Barclays maintained Hold, RBC and Jefferies maintained Buy, and Stifel and Oppenheimer reaffirmed Buy ratings — reflecting a market still broadly positive on the long-term AI/data-moat story but nervous about near-term mortgage-market and margin-sustainability risk. One post-Q1 downgrade thesis summarized the debate well: management's decision not to raise 2026 guidance despite the beat signaled caution on the mortgage-driven outlook, and while EFX's valuation is undemanding, lack of margin expansion conviction and mortgage dependency limit near-term re-rating potential.
Equifax heads into Q2 earnings with a credible beat-and-raise history, a still-favorable structural growth story (EFX.AI, Cloud-native platform, TWN Indicator share gains, proprietary-data moat, government TAM expansion), and multiple optionality catalysts (VantageScore/FHFA activation, Círculo de Crédito integration, AI-driven margin gains) — but the near-term print is once again hostage to mortgage rates, which have moved higher, not lower, since the April call due to the ongoing Iran conflict and sticky inflation. The key swing factors for the stock reaction will be: (1) whether mortgage revenue tracked at or below the ~20%+ full-year guide amid 6.5%+ rates, (2) confirmation that USIS Diversified Markets and EWS Government trends bounced back as guided, (3) any incremental color on FHFA/VantageScore timing, and (4) whether management again holds full-year guidance (as it did in Q1) or finally flexes it higher/lower given six additional months of Iran-conflict and rate visibility.