EQR Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
EQR Report Q2'26 Normalized FFO/share IN-LINE pred ~$1.01 vs. cons $1.00 MEDIUM
EQR Report Q2'26 same-store revenue growth (YoY) IN-LINE pred ~+2.7% vs. cons +2.6% MEDIUM
EQR Report Q2'26 blended lease rate / new lease scorecard BEAT pred blended ~4.5% (new lease change ~flat) vs. cons ~4.0% MEDIUM
EQR Guide FY2026 Normalized FFO/share guidance BETTER guide ~$4.04-$4.14, mid ~$4.10 vs. cons $4.09 (FY2026) MEDIUM
EQR Guide FY2026 same-store revenue growth guidance BETTER guide midpoint raised to ~2.5% (from 2.2%) vs. cons ~2.4% (FY2026) LOW
EQR Guide FY2026 same-store expense growth guidance UNCHANGED guide ~3.0%-4.0%, mid ~3.5% vs. cons ~3.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
EQR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.0% LOW
EQR Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.3% (FADE) Base case is a modest beat plus a small FY NFFO/revenue guide raise driven by SF/NY strength and April blend acceleration (1.5%->3.0%), warranting an initial pop. But with the stock near cycle highs (~$68, +10% YTD, having already jumped ~4.5% on the Q1 print) expectations are elevated and much of the coastal/AI narrative is priced. New lease change is still only inflecting toward flat with expansion markets negative, so out-period estimate revisions are capped despite the bullish 2027 supply-cliff setup; analysts trim the back-half optimism and rate sensitivity plus profit-taking pull the day-1 gain back, leaving cumulative return roughly flat (fade). LOW