EQR Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
EQR Report Q2 2026 Normalized FFO/share BEAT pred ~$1.02 vs. cons $1.01 MEDIUM
EQR Report Q2 2026 Same-Store Revenue Growth (y/y) IN-LINE pred ~2.5% vs. cons 2.6% MEDIUM
EQR Report Q2 2026 Same-Store NOI Growth (y/y) MISS pred ~1.3% vs. cons 1.6% MEDIUM
EQR Guide FY2026 Normalized FFO/share guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$4.02-$4.14 (mid $4.08) vs. cons $4.09 (FY2026) HIGH
EQR Guide Q3 2026 Normalized FFO/share guidance (newly issued) UNCHANGED guide ~$1.01-$1.05 (mid $1.03) vs. cons $1.03 (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
EQR Guide FY2026 Same-Store Revenue Growth guidance UNCHANGED guide ~1.2%-3.2% (mid 2.2%) vs. cons 2.3% (FY2026) MEDIUM
EQR Guide FY2026 Same-Store Expense Growth guidance UNCHANGED guide ~3.0%-4.0% (mid 3.5%) vs. cons 3.4% (FY2026) MEDIUM
EQR Guide Merger net run-rate synergy target UNCHANGED guide ~$125M net synergies vs. cons $125M (by end-2027) HIGH
EQR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -0.3% LOW
EQR Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.2% (STABILIZE) With no earnings call and FY2026 guidance likely reaffirmed rather than raised/cut, there's limited fresh information to drive a sustained revisions cycle; soft same-store NOI growth (expense growth still outpacing revenue) is a modest offset to an FFO beat aided by buybacks, netting to a small initial move. More importantly, EQR's trading is now dominated by merger-arb dynamics tied to the AVB exchange ratio (2.793x) and the Aug 12 shareholder votes, so any earnings-driven price reaction tends to mean-revert within days as focus shifts back to deal-spread trading rather than compounding into a trend. LOW