{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Normalized FFO/share",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.02 vs. cons $1.01",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Same-Store Revenue Growth (y/y)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~2.5% vs. cons 2.6%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Same-Store NOI Growth (y/y)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~1.3% vs. cons 1.6%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Normalized FFO/share guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.02-$4.14 (mid $4.08) vs. cons $4.09 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 Normalized FFO/share guidance (newly issued)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.01-$1.05 (mid $1.03) vs. cons $1.03 (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Same-Store Revenue Growth guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~1.2%-3.2% (mid 2.2%) vs. cons 2.3% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Same-Store Expense Growth guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~3.0%-4.0% (mid 3.5%) vs. cons 3.4% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Merger net run-rate synergy target",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$125M net synergies vs. cons $125M (by end-2027)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -0.3,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -0.2,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "With no earnings call and FY2026 guidance likely reaffirmed rather than raised/cut, there's limited fresh information to drive a sustained revisions cycle; soft same-store NOI growth (expense growth still outpacing revenue) is a modest offset to an FFO beat aided by buybacks, netting to a small initial move. More importantly, EQR's trading is now dominated by merger-arb dynamics tied to the AVB exchange ratio (2.793x) and the Aug 12 shareholder votes, so any earnings-driven price reaction tends to mean-revert within days as focus shifts back to deal-spread trading rather than compounding into a trend.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}