| EQT |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$0.39 vs. cons $0.41 |
MEDIUM |
| EQT |
Report |
Total sales volume (Bcfe) |
BEAT |
pred ~622 Bcfe vs. cons ~605 Bcfe |
MEDIUM |
| EQT |
Report |
Average price differential ($/Mcf) |
BEAT |
pred ~-$0.60/Mcf vs. cons ~-$0.70/Mcf |
MEDIUM |
| EQT |
Guide |
FY2026 total sales volume guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~2,325 Bcfe (midpoint) vs. cons ~2,325 Bcfe (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| EQT |
Guide |
Q3 2026 total capex step-down |
BETTER |
guide ~$650mm vs. cons ~$700mm (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| EQT |
Guide |
Net debt / $5B deleveraging target timing |
BETTER |
guide ~$5.0B reached by Q3 2026 vs. cons ~$5.0B by YE2026 (2026FY) |
MEDIUM |
| EQT |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| EQT |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.0% (FADE) |
Stock already down ~28% into the print with estimates aggressively pre-cut (Zacks EPS to $0.40 from $0.67), so a volume/differential beat plus early hit of the $5B net-debt target likely triggers a short-covering relief pop on day 1 against deeply bearish positioning. But Q2's better-than-feared print doesn't change the structural issue: Henry Hub cash prices stayed soft through June/July, hedge gains this quarter were modest ($45mm) versus Q1's windfall, and the LNG/data-center upside remains a 2028-2030 story. As desks rebuild 2H26/2027 models off the still-low forward curve, out-period EPS revisions get trimmed even after an in-line-to-slightly-better quarter, fading the initial pop over the following days — a classic 'sell the relief rally' pattern in gas E&Ps when spot prices lag the equity bounce. |
LOW |