Let me check a couple more things — the year-ago Q2 numbers for comparison and any recent healthcare/TAVR policy news.Let me grab the year-ago Q2 2025 figures for comparison context.# Edwards Lifesciences (EW) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview Reports after market close, Thursday, July 23, 2026 · Conference call 2:00 p.m. PT

The setup in one line

Edwards enters this print with momentum and a raised bar. Q1 was a clean beat-and-raise (12.7% underlying growth), and management repeatedly flagged that the year-over-year comparisons get tougher in the second half of 2026 because 2025's back half was so strong. Q2 is the first quarter of that harder comp — and the first earnings call for a new CFO. The debate is less about whether numbers are "fine" and more about whether the TAVR reacceleration and TMTT surge can sustain, and whether guidance gets raised again.

What management guided for Q2

For context, the year-ago Q2'25 base was: Total $1,532.2M, TAVR $1,130.9M, TMTT $134.5M, Surgical $266.8M, adjusted EPS $0.67, with adjusted gross margin 77.6% and adjusted operating margin 28.2%.

Full-year 2026 framework (raised at Q1): - Total company sales growth 9%–11% ($6.5B–$6.9B) - TAVR growth 7%–9% ($4.7B–$5.0B) - TMTT sales $740M–$780M (35%–45% growth) - Surgical mid-single-digit growth - Adjusted EPS $2.95–$3.05 - Operating margin at the high end of 28%–29% (~150 bps of constant-currency expansion) - Gross margin 78%–79%; R&D ~17% of sales; tax rate 16%–19%

The five things that matter into the print

1) TAVR: can the reacceleration hold as comps stiffen?

TAVR grew 11% in Q1 ($1.2B), driven mostly by market growth — a "renewed focus" on proactive management of severe aortic stenosis backed by a deep evidence base (EARLY TAVR in asymptomatic patients, 7-year PARTNER 3 and 10-year PARTNER II durability data). Management was explicit that this is a market-expansion story, not primarily a share story, though it acknowledged a slight competitive benefit in the U.S. plus share gains in Europe from a competitor's exit.

Watch for: - Whether U.S. TAVR growth held (management coyly said U.S. was "healthy" and OUS "even faster" in Q1 — i.e., U.S. likely high-single/low-double digits). - Durability of the Medtronic Evolut long-term data narrative. The competitor's 6-/7-year data landed mid-February; management said in April it was still too early to quantify how much of the momentum was share vs. market. Q2 is the first full quarter to observe any share shift — and any incremental U.S. share gain would be upside to guidance. - Tone on H2 comps. This is the swing factor for the full-year TAVR raise.

2) The TAVR NCD — the biggest policy catalyst

CMS is reconsidering the National Coverage Determination for TAVR, which could ease access requirements (e.g., site/volume and heart-team rules). Management said a draft decision memo was expected around June 15 — so it should exist by this call. The draft's contents and management's read-through to volumes/access will be a focal point. A favorable draft supports the multi-year growth thesis; onerous conditions would be a modest negative. Separately, management flagged the new CMS/FDA "RAPID" breakthrough-therapy pathway as a positive.

3) TMTT: another beat that forces a raise?

TMTT was the standout in Q1 — $173M, +42% underlying, yet management left the $740M–$780M full-year range unchanged. The math is telling: Q1 alone was $175M (adjusted), and if Q2 tracks near the ~40%+ pace (~$185–190M), the first half runs ~$360M, leaving a wide range for H2. A TMTT guidance raise is one of the more likely positive surprises. Key drivers: - SAPIEN M3 (U.S. mitral replacement) — very early launch; watch account expansion and utilization commentary. - EVOQUE scaling on strong TRISCEND II 2-year all-cause mortality data. - PASCAL — differentiated TEER momentum; next-gen mitral/tricuspid due Q4, plus U.S. tricuspid launch in Q4. - Reiteration of the $2B-by-2030 TMTT target.

4) New CFO's first call

Theodora ("Doretta") Mistras became CFO effective end of May, succeeding long-time CFO Scott Ullem (13 years). This is her first earnings call at the helm. Watch for any change in tone/framing on guidance philosophy, margins, or capital allocation — though a smooth "continuity" message is most likely given the transition was planned.

5) Margins, FX and capital returns

Stock context

EW shares started 2026 around $85, dipped to the mid-$70s in February (around the competitor data drop), then rallied to a ~$95 peak in early July (+25% off the lows). Notably, the stock has pulled back ~11% over the three weeks into the print, to ~$84 — essentially flat year-to-date. That fade suggests some de-risking/profit-taking ahead of the harder-comp quarter, which lowers the sentiment bar somewhat but also means expectations for another raise are partly embedded.

Catalysts on the horizon (beyond this quarter)

Bottom line — what to focus on

  1. Does guidance get raised again? A Q1-style beat plus a TMTT raise would be the bull case; a modest beat with an unchanged guide (citing H2 comps) is the base case management has been telegraphing.
  2. TAVR share signal — the first full quarter post-competitor data; any hard evidence of U.S. share capture is upside.
  3. The NCD draft memo — the single most important policy read-through for the multi-year TAVR story.
  4. Margin cadence and the new CFO's framing — expect H2 spend to ramp; don't over-read Q1 margin strength.

Note: figures above are drawn from Edwards' Q1 2026 earnings release/call and Q2 2025 release. As of this writing I did not find a confirmed Q2 2026 consensus estimate or the published NCD draft memo in the available sources, so treat the guidance midpoints (sales ~$1.70B, adj. EPS ~$0.73) and the NCD as the key items to reconcile against the actual print and management commentary.