Edwards Lifesciences (EW) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 2026 is modestly constructive — consensus sits below the Q2 guidance midpoint on revenue and EPS, and the bar is achievable given the momentum established in Q1; the biggest swing factor is whether TMTT continues its 40%+ growth trajectory and whether the NCD draft decision memo (released June 15) catalyzes any incremental TAVR volume commentary.

Edwards enters Q2 2026 earnings with strong operational momentum following a broad-based Q1 beat (12.7% total revenue growth, adjusted EPS of $0.78 vs. $0.73 consensus), which prompted management to raise full-year total company sales guidance to 9%–11% and TAVR growth guidance to 7%–9%. Consensus for Q2 sits at ~$1.70B in revenue and ~$0.75 in adjusted EPS — both below the midpoints of management's Q2 guidance ranges ($1.66B–$1.74B revenue; $0.70–$0.76 EPS), suggesting the bar is not stretched. Estimate revisions have been essentially flat since the Q1 print, indicating the Street has largely digested the guidance raise without adding incremental optimism. The stock has rallied ~+3.5% since last earnings (vs. S&P 500 +5.1%), with a notable surge in late June/early July driven by the CMS draft NCD proposal on June 15 that would remove the CED requirement for symptomatic TAVR and expand coverage to asymptomatic patients — a potentially transformative policy catalyst that Edwards is uniquely positioned to benefit from given its FDA-approved asymptomatic indication. The key wildcard is the pace of TMTT adoption: at $186M consensus for Q2, the implied sequential step-up from Q1's $175M actual is modest, and any upside there — driven by Evoque, Pascal, or Sapien M3 — could be the primary source of a beat.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a modestly low bar heading into Q2 — revenue and EPS estimates sit below the midpoints of management's own guidance ranges. TMTT growth rate is the bigger swing factor; TAVR is the larger absolute revenue driver but has more predictable trajectory.

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a

Key Takeaway: Consensus represents a

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data; Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (April 23, 2026). All consensus figures as of July 22, 2026.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters)

Top 2 KPIs: Total Revenue & Adjusted EPS

Note: Q2 2024 and Q3 2024 large revenue misses reflect the Critical Care segment divestiture (completed Q3 2024), which caused a significant discontinuity in reported revenue vs. pre-divestiture consensus estimates. Excluding this structural break, EW has beaten revenue consensus in 6 of the last 6 comparable quarters and adjusted EPS in 7 of the last 8 quarters — a consistent beat pattern.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Management raised full-year guidance across all key metrics at Q1 earnings (April 23, 2026) and has issued no subsequent revisions; tone is

Key Takeaway: Management raised full-year guidance across all key metrics at Q1 earnings (April 23) and has not issued any subsequent revisions; tone remains

Key Takeaway: Management raised full-year guidance at Q1 earnings and has not revised since; tone is

Source: Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (April 23, 2026); Visible Alpha Consensus Data.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been virtually unchanged since the Q1 print — the Street absorbed the guidance raise without adding incremental optimism.

Estimates have been essentially flat since the Q1 print (April 28 baseline vs. July 22 current), with changes of less than 0.1% across all KPIs. This signals the Street has fully digested the guidance raise and is not adding incremental optimism — creating a low-risk bar where any operational outperformance flows directly to a beat.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data; Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: EW has modestly underperformed the S&P 500 since Q1 earnings (+3.5% vs. +5.1%) but significantly outperformed the medtech ETF (IHI, -7.3%); the late-June/early-July surge to ~$95 was driven by the

EW vs. IHI (Medtech ETF) vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at April 22, 2026 (day before Q1 2026 earnings). Source: Stock Price Data.

Key Takeaway: EW has modestly underperformed the S&P 500 since Q1 earnings (+3.5% vs. +5.1%) but outperformed the medtech ETF (IHI, -7.3%); the stock's late-June/early-July surge to ~$95 was driven by the

Key Takeaway: EW has modestly underperformed the S&P 500 since Q1 earnings but significantly outperformed the medtech sector (IHI); the

EW opened April 23 (Q1 earnings day) at $81.53, dipped briefly post-earnings as the market digested the print, then rallied sharply to $84–$88 range through May. A notable surge in late June/early July pushed EW to a high of ~$95 (July 6–7), driven by the CMS draft NCD proposal released June 15 that proposed removing the CED requirement for symptomatic TAVR and expanding coverage to asymptomatic patients. The stock has since pulled back to ~$84 as of July 22, giving back most of the NCD-driven gains. IHI (iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF) declined ~7.3% over the same period, reflecting broader medtech sector pressure, making EW's relative outperformance notable. The stock currently trades at approximately 28x NTM adjusted EPS — a modest discount to its recent historical premium, suggesting the market is not pricing in a significant beat.

Sector ETF: IHI (iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF) — appropriate for EW's pure-play structural heart / medical devices sub-sector. Source: Stock Price Data.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The

Key Takeaway: The CMS draft NCD proposal (June 15) is the most important development since Q1 earnings — it validates Edwards' asymptomatic TAVR strategy and, if finalized, could meaningfully expand the addressable market; the stock has partially priced this in but the full commercial impact is multi-year.

• June 15–18, 2026 — CMS Draft NCD Proposal for TAVR (Most Important): CMS released a proposed decision memo proposing to (1) remove the Coverage with Evidence Development (CED) requirement for TAVR in symptomatic severe AS patients, (2) expand coverage to asymptomatic severe AS patients under CED, and (3) update procedural/operator/hospital volume requirements. Edwards is the only company with an FDA-approved TAVR device for asymptomatic AS, giving it a meaningful first-mover advantage if the final NCD includes asymptomatic coverage. William Blair called it "one of the most favorable policy developments for the structural heart market in years." Public comment period closed July 15; final decision expected by September 13, 2026.
• May 4–8, 2026 — CFO Transition Formalized: Theodora ("Doretta") Mistras officially appointed as incoming CFO (effective June 1, 2026), succeeding Scott Ullem. Mistras joins from Viatris with prior investment banking experience. Transition is orderly and resolved; no financial guidance impact expected. Annual equity grants to new CFO filed via 8-K.
• May 8, 2026 — Annual Shareholder Meeting: Directors elected and expanded stock incentive plan approved. Routine governance event; no material business impact.
• April 28, 2026 — BofA Healthcare Conference Presentation: Edwards presented at the BofA Securities 2026 Health Care Conference. No material guidance update disclosed; management reiterated Q2 and full-year outlook consistent with Q1 earnings call.
• April 23, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings Beat & Guidance Raise: Total revenue of $1.65B (+12.7% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $0.78 both beat consensus. Full-year revenue growth guidance raised to 9–11% (from 8–10%); TAVR growth guidance raised to 7–9% (from 6–8%); adjusted EPS guidance raised to $2.95–$3.05 (from $2.80–$2.95). Accelerated share repurchase agreement entered. Stock rose sharply in after-hours trading.
• Ongoing — NCD Modernization Timeline: The draft NCD was released on schedule (June 15 deadline met). Final NCD expected by September 13, 2026. Implementation could catalyze TAVR adoption by simplifying treatment pathways and enabling earlier patient access. Edwards' PROGRESS trial (moderate AS) results expected at TCT 2026 (October), which could further expand the addressable market.
• Ongoing — Medtronic TAVR Headwinds (Positive Read-Through for EW): Medtronic's Evolut TAVR business has stabilized after a slowdown tied to low-risk data, with weekly U.S. procedure volumes stabilizing over the last 8 weeks per MDT's May 20 earnings call. This suggests the TAVR market is not deteriorating, and Edwards' share gains (slight US, more meaningful Europe from competitor exit) appear durable.
• Ongoing — Analyst Sentiment: Multiple analysts raised price targets following the CMS NCD proposal (at least one target move to $104 cited). William Blair maintains Outperform. Some bears note the CMS upside may already be partially embedded in valuation and flag execution risk around asymptomatic CED requirements slowing adoption.

7. Peer Commentaries — Read-Through for Q2 2026

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from MDT (Q4 FY2026 earnings, May 20), BSX (Bernstein Conference, May 27), and ABT (Q2 2026 earnings, July 16) is broadly constructive for EW's Q2 print — TAVR market stabilization, no macro-driven procedure volume slowdowns, and strong structural heart demand all support EW's guidance. ABT's July 16 commentary (most recent, directly covering Q2 calendar period) is the most relevant read-through, confirming durable healthcare demand and strong cardiovascular device growth.

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 16, 2026)

Read-Through Relevance: HIGH — ABT reported Q2 2026 results on July 16, directly covering the same calendar quarter as EW's upcoming print. ABT's cardiovascular device portfolio grew 8.5% in Q2, with heart failure up 9% (double-digit US growth). CEO Robert Ford explicitly addressed investor concerns about procedure volume deceleration and Medicaid/ACA impacts.

• No procedure volume slowdown: Ford stated demand for "high acuity life-saving products is very inelastic" and that Medicare (not Medicaid) is the primary payer for cardiovascular devices, representing "over two thirds" of ABT's U.S. cardio business. This is directly applicable to EW's TAVR and TMTT procedures, which are similarly Medicare-dominated. Ford called the assumption that Medicaid/ACA changes would hurt medtech "flawed."
• Structural heart demand remains strong: ABT's structural heart unit is expected to return to "mid to high single digit growth" by year-end. International structural heart grew double digits in H1, with international TAVR up 30% in H1. This is a positive read-through for EW's international TAVR growth trajectory.
• Aging population tailwind intact: Ford noted "every day in the United States, 10,000 people turn 65" and that healthcare demand will "continue to accelerate." This supports EW's long-term TAVR and TMTT market growth thesis.
• US mitral space competitive dynamics: ABT acknowledged challenges in US mitral (personnel changes, re-evaluating market approach), noting "we've got to do a better job in mitral." This is a modest positive for EW's TMTT franchise, as ABT's mitral struggles may create share opportunity for EW's Pascal and Sapien M3.
• Hospital capacity not a constraint: ABT's diagnostic test volume data showed "strong and stable demand for testing" globally, and hospital labs grew 13% in Q2. No capacity constraints flagged — consistent with EW's Q1 commentary that capacity "has not been an acute matter."

Medtronic (MDT) — Q4 FY2026 Earnings Call (May 20, 2026)

Read-Through Relevance: MODERATE — MDT's Q4 FY2026 ended April 24, 2026 (overlapping with EW's Q2 2026 only for the first ~3 weeks of April). However, MDT's forward commentary about TAVR market stabilization and structural heart trends is directly relevant to EW's Q2 outlook.

• TAVR market stabilizing: MDT reported that weekly U.S. TAVR procedure volumes "stabilized over the last 8 weeks" following a slowdown tied to low-risk data from Evolut. MDT noted the slowdown was primarily a U.S. phenomenon and that international TAVR was not significantly impacted. This stabilization is a positive read-through for EW's Q2 TAVR volumes, suggesting the market headwind from MDT's data is contained.
• Structural heart flat in Q4 but stabilizing: MDT's Structural Heart segment was flat in Q4, with U.S. softer but international strong. MDT incorporated "prudent guidance" for FY27 reflecting stabilization. EW, with its superior Sapien durability data and asymptomatic indication, is better positioned to benefit from any TAVR market recovery.
• Medtech market structurally resilient: MDT described the broader medtech market as "structurally resilient due to durable fundamentals, including an aging population, rising chronic diseases, and increasing demand for medical procedures." FY27 organic revenue guidance of 6.75–7.25% implies continued market growth.
• Competitor exit in Europe confirmed: MDT's TAVR challenges in Europe (limited to large-size valve, older technology) are consistent with EW's Q1 commentary about share gains from a competitor's exit in Europe. This dynamic appears durable into Q2.

Boston Scientific (BSX) — Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference (May 27, 2026)

Read-Through Relevance: MODERATE — BSX's conference commentary (May 27) covers the early weeks of EW's Q2 2026 and provides color on structural heart market dynamics, procedure volumes, and competitive positioning.

• No macro-driven procedure volume slowdowns: BSX CEO Michael Mahoney stated the company does "not see any slowdowns or significant impact" from Medicaid cuts or ACA exchange subsidies in its markets. BSX observed "healthy volumes in EP and healthy volumes across interventional cardiology." This is a positive read-through for EW's procedure volume environment in Q2.
• TAVR market described as "very large fast-growing": BSX's strategic investment in MiRus (targeting late 2028/early 2029 SIEGEL valve launch) underscores the long-term attractiveness of the TAVR market. BSX characterized TAVR as a market with "one large competitor" (EW) that it aims to disrupt — validating EW's dominant market position in the near term.
• Structural heart markets growing at least 8%: BSX stated it competes in markets growing "at least 8%" annually. This is consistent with EW's 9–11% total company growth guidance and supports the view that structural heart market growth remains robust.
• WATCHMAN headwinds not relevant to EW: BSX flagged declining stand-alone WATCHMAN procedures due to EP workflow issues and hospital capacity competition. This is specific to the LAA closure market and does not read through to EW's TAVR or TMTT procedures, which serve different patient populations and procedure settings.
• Hospital capacity competition a watch item: BSX noted "competition for space" in cath labs between WATCHMAN, ablation, and other procedures. While not directly impacting EW's TAVR (which has its own dedicated procedure slots), this is worth monitoring as a potential constraint on TMTT procedure scheduling at busy centers.

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from MDT (Q4 FY2026 earnings, May 20), BSX (Bernstein Conference, May 27), and ABT (Q2 2026 earnings, July 16) is broadly constructive for EW's Q2 print —

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary is broadly constructive for EW's Q2 print: TAVR market stabilization (MDT), no macro-driven procedure volume slowdowns (BSX, ABT), and strong structural heart demand (ABT) all support EW's guidance. The most important read-through is ABT's July 16 commentary confirming

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market buys or discretionary sells stand out — the vast majority of activity since Q1 earnings consists of routine equity award grants (code A), tax withholding forfeitures (code F), and 10b5-1 plan-driven option exercises and sales (code M/S under pre-established plans).

The only notable open-market sale (code S) outside of 10b5-1 plans is a modest discretionary sale by Daveen Chopra (CVP, TMTT & Surgical) of 1,500 shares on May 22, and a sale by Donald Bobo (CVP, Strategy) of 23,145 shares via trust on May 27. CEO Bernard Zovighian's May 12 sale of 36,351 shares via trust was part of a pre-established 10b5-1 plan. No open-market buys were recorded. The absence of discretionary buying is not unusual given the stock's post-earnings rally, but the lack of any insider purchase signal is neutral rather than positive.

Open-Market Buys and Sells (Form 4, Codes P/S) — Since April 23, 2026

Note: The large cluster of Form 4 filings in early May (May 7–12) reflects the annual equity grant cycle — performance rights vesting, new RSU/option awards, and associated tax withholding forfeitures (code F). These are routine compensation events and carry no informational signal about management's view of the stock. The most notable discretionary activity is Donald Bobo's combined ~33,000 share sale in May (via trust and personal account), though this represents a fraction of his total holdings and is not unusual for a CVP-level executive following a strong earnings-driven rally.

Source: Insider Transaction Data (SEC Form 4 filings).