| FCX |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.68 vs. cons $0.62 |
MEDIUM |
| FCX |
Report |
Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$6.95B vs. cons $6.75B |
MEDIUM |
| FCX |
Report |
Unit net cash cost ($/lb, lower=beat) |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.05 vs. cons/guide $2.24 |
LOW |
| FCX |
Guide |
Grasberg 2H'26 ramp (% of capacity) |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~65% vs. prior ~65% (2H FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| FCX |
Guide |
FY26 copper sales volume |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~3.1B lbs vs. cons ~3.1B (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| FCX |
Guide |
FY26 operating cash flow (spot copper >$6.40 vs $6.00 assumption) |
BETTER |
guide ~$9.3B vs. cons/prior ~$8.7B (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| FCX |
Guide |
FY26 unit net cash cost |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1.95 vs. cons ~$1.95 (FY26) |
LOW |
| FCX |
Guide |
Capital returns / buyback pace |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$0.15 dividend + modest buyback vs. cons $0.15 (Q2, $2.9B auth left) |
LOW |
| FCX |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-4.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| FCX |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-6.0% (FADE) |
Classic sell-the-news: FCX ran +10.6% in the two sessions into the print (58.79->65.02) on a high ~2.5 beta, front-running a solid price-driven beat. The report should beat on EPS/revenue via strong copper-gold realizations, but the stock trades on guidance and out-period math, not the headline. The FY26 volume cut to 3.1B lbs already lives in numbers, and the Grasberg 2H'26 ~65% ramp is at best reaffirmed with skew toward further caution (wet drawpoints, mid-2027 fix), so there is no upward revision catalyst to sustain the pre-print rally. Higher OCF from spot copper is offset by cost creep and a modest buyback. With expectations elevated near 52-week highs, the initial pop fades and estimates drift lower on the ramp overhang. |
MEDIUM |