{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.68 vs. cons $0.62",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.95B vs. cons $6.75B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Unit net cash cost ($/lb, lower=beat)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.05 vs. cons/guide $2.24",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Grasberg 2H'26 ramp (% of capacity)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~65% vs. prior ~65% (2H FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 copper sales volume",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~3.1B lbs vs. cons ~3.1B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 operating cash flow (spot copper >$6.40 vs $6.00 assumption)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$9.3B vs. cons/prior ~$8.7B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 unit net cash cost",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.95 vs. cons ~$1.95 (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital returns / buyback pace",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$0.15 dividend + modest buyback vs. cons $0.15 (Q2, $2.9B auth left)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -4.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -6.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Classic sell-the-news: FCX ran +10.6% in the two sessions into the print (58.79->65.02) on a high ~2.5 beta, front-running a solid price-driven beat. The report should beat on EPS/revenue via strong copper-gold realizations, but the stock trades on guidance and out-period math, not the headline. The FY26 volume cut to 3.1B lbs already lives in numbers, and the Grasberg 2H'26 ~65% ramp is at best reaffirmed with skew toward further caution (wet drawpoints, mid-2027 fix), so there is no upward revision catalyst to sustain the pre-print rally. Higher OCF from spot copper is offset by cost creep and a modest buyback. With expectations elevated near 52-week highs, the initial pop fades and estimates drift lower on the ramp overhang.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}