| FCX |
Report |
Q2 Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.65 vs. cons $0.61 |
MEDIUM |
| FCX |
Report |
Q2 Revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$6.65B vs. cons $6.6B |
MEDIUM |
| FCX |
Report |
Q2 Consolidated Copper Sales (lbs) |
MISS |
pred ~665M lbs vs. cons/guide 690M lbs |
MEDIUM |
| FCX |
Guide |
FY2026 Consolidated Copper Sales Guidance |
LOWER |
guide ~3.00B lbs vs. cons 3.1B lbs (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| FCX |
Guide |
FY2026 Unit Net Cash Cost Guidance |
LOWER |
guide ~$2.02/lb vs. cons $1.95/lb (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| FCX |
Guide |
Grasberg 2H26 Capacity Ramp-Up (% of capacity) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~65% vs. cons 65% (2H2026) |
LOW |
| FCX |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-5.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| FCX |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-8.0% (FADE) |
Even if headline EPS/revenue print roughly in line to a modest beat on higher realized copper prices, the volume miss on Grasberg (wet-drawpoint/chute bottleneck not yet resolved) and a further trim to FY26 copper-sales/cost guidance imply sell-side models must cut out-year (2026-2027) EBITDA and FCF estimates even after the print. Given the stock rallied ~10%+ into the quarter and has a history of a double-digit post-earnings drawdown last quarter on similar Grasberg news, initial negative reaction should be reinforced over the following days as analysts publish revised numbers reflecting the slower ramp, producing follow-through selling (fade) rather than a snap-back, unless management delivers unambiguously better drawpoint/chute-fix data than modeled. |
MEDIUM |