{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.65 vs. cons $0.61",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 Revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.65B vs. cons $6.6B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 Consolidated Copper Sales (lbs)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~665M lbs vs. cons/guide 690M lbs",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Consolidated Copper Sales Guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~3.00B lbs vs. cons 3.1B lbs (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Unit Net Cash Cost Guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.02/lb vs. cons $1.95/lb (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Grasberg 2H26 Capacity Ramp-Up (% of capacity)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~65% vs. cons 65% (2H2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -5.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -8.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Even if headline EPS/revenue print roughly in line to a modest beat on higher realized copper prices, the volume miss on Grasberg (wet-drawpoint/chute bottleneck not yet resolved) and a further trim to FY26 copper-sales/cost guidance imply sell-side models must cut out-year (2026-2027) EBITDA and FCF estimates even after the print. Given the stock rallied ~10%+ into the quarter and has a history of a double-digit post-earnings drawdown last quarter on similar Grasberg news, initial negative reaction should be reinforced over the following days as analysts publish revised numbers reflecting the slower ramp, producing follow-through selling (fade) rather than a snap-back, unless management delivers unambiguously better drawpoint/chute-fix data than modeled.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}