Report date: Thursday, July 23, 2026 (before market open) | Call: 10:00 a.m. ET
FCX shares have been volatile but strong over the past year, rallying sharply into this report — the stock closed at $65.02 on July 22, up from roughly $58.80 just two trading days earlier, and up from the low-$60s at the start of April. The stock still carries scars from the last report: FCX's Q1 2026 print on April 23 triggered a double-digit single-day decline after management disclosed a new operational snag at Grasberg even though headline Q1 numbers beat estimates — a reminder that execution updates on the Indonesian ramp-up, not just the reported quarter, are what move this stock.
Wall Street consensus heading into tomorrow's report calls for Q2 EPS around $0.60–$0.62 (up low-double-digits year-over-year) on revenue of roughly $6.5–$6.75 billion (down ~11–15% y/y, reflecting still-depressed Indonesian volumes versus last year's pre-incident base). For the full year 2026, analysts model adjusted EPS near $2.56, up sharply from $1.77 in 2025. The stock trades at a rich multiple (P/E in the mid-30s by some estimates), so the bar for a positive reaction is arguably more about the trajectory of the Grasberg fix and cost guidance than about the raw EPS beat/miss.
The single most important thing for investors to track is not whether FCX beats consensus this quarter, but whether management confirms the Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up is tracking to (or better than) the revised plan laid out on the Q1 call. Recap of what happened last quarter:
What to watch tomorrow: an update on the wet/dry drawpoint ratio trend (is it stabilizing, improving, or worsening?), progress installing the "spillminator" chute regulators (management said equipment was already on-site and testing had begun in April), and whether the ~60% (Q2)/~65% (2H26) capacity assumptions are holding. Management has been explicit that this is a dynamic, panel-by-panel situation, so any incremental commentary — positive or negative — could move the stock more than the headline P&L.
FCX gave explicit Q2 targets on the Q1 call that the actual print should be measured against: - Copper sales: ~690 million lbs; gold: ~140 thousand oz; molybdenum: ~22 million lbs - Consolidated unit net cash cost: ~$2.24/lb for the quarter - The $700 million insurance settlement related to the September 2025 mud-rush incident was booked as a Q1 gain but "PTFI expects to receive the proceeds from this settlement in second-quarter 2026" — a cash inflow investors should see land this quarter, supporting the balance sheet.
Since late February 2026, FCX has been managing an unusual cost headwind tied to the Middle East conflict: "a sharp rise in diesel prices in March equates to an approximate $500 million cost increase on an annualized basis", with the most significant impact concentrated in Indonesia, and prices for sulfuric acid also more than doubling on the spot market (though FCX said it has limited spot exposure). Given continued geopolitical tension, watch for commentary on whether these input costs have eased or intensified, and whether the $1.95/lb full-year cost guide holds or moves again.
On trade policy, note that FCX's U.S. cathode business has so far been shielded: Section 232 tariffs (50%) apply to semi-finished/derivative copper products but management confirmed on the Q1 call that the tariff changes "did not change anything with respect to the refined copper cathodes at this point," pending a mid-2026 government review. That review concluded around June 30, 2026 with a temporary exemption for refined copper imports, alongside a phased tariff framework penciled in for 2027–2028 — a modest near-term positive for clarity, though it introduces a new variable for 2027+ modeling that analysts will likely probe on the call.
Copper has been a strong tailwind. Spot/COMEX copper was trading around $6.44–$6.47/lb in the days ahead of this report — comfortably above the $6.00/lb price deck FCX used for its full-year 2026 operating cash flow guidance (~$8.7 billion), and well above the $5.78/lb average realized price in Q1. Since FCX disclosed sensitivity of roughly "$400 million in annual EBITDA" per $0.10/lb move in copper (using 2027/28 volumes), sustained strength here is a meaningful offset to the Grasberg volume shortfall and cost inflation — a key variable for the tone of updated full-year guidance tomorrow.
This is a "show me" quarter for Freeport. The market already knows the headline numbers should look decent given a favorable copper tape, and consensus has been drifting higher into the print. The swing factor is qualitative: can management demonstrate that the Grasberg chute-modification program is on schedule, that the wet/dry drawpoint ratio isn't deteriorating further, and that the path to 65% Grasberg capacity in 2H26 and full capacity by end-2027 remains intact. Secondary watch items are updated full-year cost guidance (diesel/sulfuric acid), confirmation the $700 million insurance cash actually lands this quarter, and any incremental color on the Bagdad investment decision expected later this year. Given the stock's run into earnings, the bar for a "beat-and-raise" reaction is high, and the risk of a "sell the news" outcome is real if Grasberg commentary is merely in-line rather than incrementally better.