| GL |
Report |
Net operating EPS (2Q26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.70 vs. cons ~$3.62 |
MEDIUM |
| GL |
Report |
AIL avg. producing agent count (2Q26) |
MISS |
pred ~11,100 vs. cons ~11,450 |
MEDIUM |
| GL |
Report |
Health underwriting margin % (2Q26) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~25.0% vs. cons ~25.3% |
LOW |
| GL |
Guide |
FY2026 operating EPS guide |
BETTER |
guide ~$15.50-$16.00 (mid ~$15.75) vs. cons ~$15.72 (FY2026) |
LOW |
| GL |
Guide |
Q3 assumption-update life margin guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~49-54% (mid ~51.5%) vs. cons ~51% (3Q26) |
LOW |
| GL |
Guide |
FY2026 buyback pace |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$560-610M (mid ~$585M) vs. cons ~$585M (FY2026) |
LOW |
| GL |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| GL |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.0% (FADE) |
GL is a near-zero/negative-beta idiosyncratic mover (measured beta ~ -0.05), so residual ~ raw move. The stock is +33% YTD, +20% since the Q1 print, and sitting at all-time highs (~$184, ~11.8x FY26 op-EPS), setting a high 'execution + no negative surprises' bar into a clean Q2 (no annual assumption update this quarter). A modest EPS beat is likely already discounted, while the two real forward catalysts (Q3 assumption update, Bermuda capital) only get pre-marketed here and the AIL agent-count inflection likely still shows a YoY decline — soft data that pressures 2H recruiting/sales assumptions. Absent a clear guide raise or a concrete Bermuda cash-flow update, out-period math and profit-taking pull estimates and the extended price back down after the print, so the initial reaction fades further over the following days. |
LOW |