GM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
GM Report Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$3.30 vs. cons ~$3.15 MEDIUM
GM Report Revenue (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~$46.3B vs. cons ~$46.5B MEDIUM
GM Report GMNA EBIT-adjusted margin (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~8.5% vs. cons ~7.8% LOW
GM Guide FY2026 EBIT-adjusted guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$13.5-15.5B (reaffirm) vs. cons ~$14.6B (FY2026) MEDIUM
GM Guide FY2026 EPS-adjusted guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$11.50-13.50 (reaffirm) vs. cons ~$12.60 (FY2026) MEDIUM
GM Guide FY2026 adjusted auto FCF guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$9-11B (reaffirm) vs. cons ~$10.2B (FY2026) MEDIUM
GM Guide FY2026 gross tariff cost outlook UNCHANGED guide ~$2.5-3.5B vs. cons ~$3.0B (FY2026) LOW
GM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% LOW
GM Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.3% (FADE) Low year-ago comp and GM's beat streak (4 straight, ~20% avg surprise) make a Q2 EPS beat likely, so shares should pop on the print. But the FY guide is reaffirmed rather than raised (Q1's raise was flattered by the one-time ~$0.88/share IEEPA benefit), and the reaffirmed $13.5-15.5B FY EBIT-adj implies a softer 2H as full Section 232 tariffs, commodity/DRAM inflation and no IEEPA repeat bite. That out-period math pulls estimates down even after a beat; combined with the Q1 precedent (beat gave ~+1.3% then faded next day), the initial gain fades and residual return retraces toward flat. MEDIUM