{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.30 vs. cons ~$3.15",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$46.3B vs. cons ~$46.5B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "GMNA EBIT-adjusted margin (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~8.5% vs. cons ~7.8%",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 EBIT-adjusted guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$13.5-15.5B (reaffirm) vs. cons ~$14.6B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 EPS-adjusted guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$11.50-13.50 (reaffirm) vs. cons ~$12.60 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 adjusted auto FCF guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$9-11B (reaffirm) vs. cons ~$10.2B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 gross tariff cost outlook",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.5-3.5B vs. cons ~$3.0B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.3,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Low year-ago comp and GM's beat streak (4 straight, ~20% avg surprise) make a Q2 EPS beat likely, so shares should pop on the print. But the FY guide is reaffirmed rather than raised (Q1's raise was flattered by the one-time ~$0.88/share IEEPA benefit), and the reaffirmed $13.5-15.5B FY EBIT-adj implies a softer 2H as full Section 232 tariffs, commodity/DRAM inflation and no IEEPA repeat bite. That out-period math pulls estimates down even after a beat; combined with the Q1 precedent (beat gave ~+1.3% then faded next day), the initial gain fades and residual return retraces toward flat.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}