I'll research GM ahead of their Q2 2026 earnings report. Let me gather recent earnings history, filings, and news.I'll read the most recent earnings materials and get more context.I have strong Q1 2026 context. Now let me get the year-ago Q2 2025 results, recent news/analyst expectations, and stock performance.Let me get analyst consensus expectations and any recent sector context.Let me get analyst consensus expectations for the quarter.I now have everything I need. Here's the earnings preview.
Report date: Tuesday, July 21, 2026, before the open · Conference call 8:30 a.m. ET Reporting: Mary Barra (Chair & CEO), Paul Jacobson (CFO), Susan Sheffield (GM Financial)
GM heads into Q2 with real momentum but a high bar. Q1 was a blowout — adjusted EPS of $3.70 vs. ~$2.78 consensus — though roughly $0.5B (≈$0.88/share) of that came from a one-time tariff accounting adjustment tied to the Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling. Management used the beat to raise full-year EBIT-adjusted guidance to $13.5–15.5B and adjusted EPS to $11.50–13.50. The Q2 print is important less for the headline (GM has beaten four straight quarters, average surprise ~20%) and more for what it signals about the durability of North American margins, the trajectory of tariff/commodity costs, and whether the digital-services story keeps compounding. Shares are down ~6% YTD (~$76 vs. ~$81 to start the year), so sentiment is cautious and expectations are for a "prove-it" quarter.
| Metric | Q2 2026 Street | Q2 2025 actual | Implied YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | ~$3.11–$3.20 | $2.53 | +23% to +27% |
| Revenue | ~$46.0–$47.0B | $47.1B | ~flat to –2.5% |
| GMNA revenue (est.) | ~$37.8–38.5B | $39.5B | ~–4% |
Note the year-ago comparison is soft: Q2 2025 was GM's first full tariff-hit quarter, when EBIT-adjusted fell to $3.0B (6.4% margin) and GMNA margin collapsed to 6.1% from 10.9% a year earlier. That easy comp is the single biggest reason the Street models a ~23%+ EPS increase on flat-to-down revenue.
1. North American margin — the whole thesis. GM is targeting 8–10% GMNA EBIT-adjusted margin for the full year, and Q1 came in at 10.1% (8.6% ex the tariff adjustment). The key question: can GM hold ~8%+ in Q2 despite (a) a full quarter of Section 232 tariffs with no repeat of the one-time IEEPA benefit, and (b) rising commodity/logistics/DRAM costs? Watch the walk between gross tariff drag, self-help offsets, warranty tailwind (~$1B expected for the year, ~$200M/qtr), and pricing.
2. Volume, mix and inventory. U.S. Q2 deliveries reportedly fell ~4% YoY, largely a supply story — GM entered Q2 with lean inventory (~47 days) after planned full-size pickup tooling downtime and a strong December. Management said it wants to rebuild truck inventory over the coming quarters. Look for whether leaner lots cost GM share (especially in high-margin full-size pickups, where a competitor has been pushing) and whether incentives stayed disciplined (GM has run ~2pts below industry).
3. Tariffs & trade policy — the swing factor. GM guided full-year gross tariff costs to $2.5–3.5B, with 232 (not IEEPA) as the bulk of the burden. The backdrop is deteriorating: the administration is threatening a new 50% tariff on select Canadian goods (effective Aug. 19) and the USMCA review is ongoing — a critical issue given GM's Mexican/Canadian footprint and its Orion (EV→ICE) reshoring plans. Any framing of USMCA outcomes or incremental 232/auto-parts tariff exposure will move the stock.
4. Commodities, DRAM and the Iran conflict. At Q1, GM raised its 2026 commodity-inflation guide (incl. logistics and higher DRAM/memory costs) to $1.5–2.0B and flagged the Iran conflict as its top monitored risk — both for direct cost (energy/freight) and for Middle East (GMI) wholesale disruption. Management diverted full-size SUVs/pickups from the Middle East back to North America. Watch GMI commentary and whether oil-driven cost pressure is abating or worsening.
5. EV losses and restructuring charges. GM took $1.1B in EV-related charges in Q1 (on top of $7.6B in 2H25) and expected most supplier/commercial claims cash to be paid by the end of Q2 — so watch for a final "clearing" charge and confirmation the overhang is largely behind them. Operationally, GM still expects a $1.0–1.5B YoY EV benefit in 2026 from rightsizing capacity, with EVs stabilizing around ~6% of U.S. industry sales (GM's U.S. EV share reached ~13% exiting Q1).
6. Software & services — the re-rating catalyst. This is GM's most underappreciated story. Q1 digital/OnStar revenue was >$750M (+20% YoY), deferred revenue hit $5.8B (+50%+), and Super Cruise attach/renewal rates are holding ~40%. Full-year targets: ~$3.1B recognized revenue, ~$7.5B deferred, 13M subscribers. High-margin, non-cyclical revenue that supports the long-term margin narrative into "SDV 2.0" and the 2028 eyes-off/hands-off Escalade IQ launch. Any subscriber/ARPU updates matter for the multiple.
7. Capital returns & free cash flow. GM remains aggressive: $800M of buybacks in Q1, $5.5B left on authorization (a new $6B plan has been referenced), and management explicitly calls repurchasing at current valuation the best use of capital. Full-year adjusted auto FCF guide is $9–11B, back-half weighted — and Q2 is complicated by heavy EV restructuring cash outflows, so the cash-flow line and any buyback pace/authorization refresh are worth tracking.
Bottom line: With a low year-ago bar and GM's beat streak, the headline will likely clear the ~$3.11–$3.20 Street EPS. The stock's reaction will hinge on the quality of the beat (core operations vs. one-offs), the tariff/commodity/USMCA cost outlook, and whether management raises rather than just reaffirms guidance — plus continued proof points on the high-margin software and services flywheel.
Note: Consensus figures are drawn from third-party estimate aggregators and vary modestly by source (Zacks ~$3.13/$46.0B; others up to ~$3.20/$47.0B). All prior-period financials are from GM's own Q1 2026 and Q2 2025 earnings materials.