GM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
GM Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$3.35 vs. cons $3.13 MEDIUM
GM Report Total Revenue MISS pred ~$45.6B vs. cons $46.56B MEDIUM
GM Report North America EBIT-adjusted margin MISS pred ~9.0% vs. cons ~9.6% MEDIUM
GM Guide FY2026 EBIT-adjusted guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$14.5B (midpoint of $13.5-15.5B) vs. cons ~$14.5B (FY2026) MEDIUM
GM Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$12.50 (midpoint of $11.50-13.50) vs. cons ~$12.50 (FY2026) MEDIUM
GM Guide FY2026 Digital/software revenue target UNCHANGED guide ~$3.1B vs. cons ~$3.1B (FY2026) LOW
GM Guide Gross tariff cost outlook UNCHANGED guide ~$3.0B (midpoint of $2.5-3.5B) vs. cons ~$3.0B (FY2026) MEDIUM
GM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
GM Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) GM's beat magnitude has decelerated each of the last three quarters (~+15% stock reaction in Q3'25, ~+9% in Q4'25, ~+5.5% in Q1'26), showing the market is increasingly pricing in outperformance ex-ante; with full-year EBIT-adjusted guidance likely held at $13.5-15.5B rather than raised again (tariff relief already captured in the Q1 update) and management flagging a truck-changeover volume headwind and continued EV-sourced unit declines for H2, sell-side is likely to trim back-half volume/mix assumptions even after a Q2 beat, causing an initial pop to fade over the week as analysts publish more conservative Q3/Q4 models. MEDIUM